Fed hawks

Max Sawicky sawicky at epinet.org
Fri Sep 18 08:48:07 PDT 1998


If Greenspan were do die in Andrea Mitchell's passionate embrace this evening, Mark Jones would probably win his 3,000 Dow bet by the close tomorrow.

I haven't agreed a bet yet - Sawicky did not mention a price (whatever it is I'll pay him off at the rate of one kilo of dried roubles per $1,000).

My prediction is based on the fact that the Nikkei, according to the FT today, lost 60+% of its value after the Japanese bubble burst. The same fall in the Dow would bring it to 3000.

Payment in roubles would be two bets, or maybe three.

I'll take good old imperialist dollars, thank you very much.

Why not say $50?

The question is what your winning, target range would be one year hence. As you know the probability of hitting a single point in a continuous distribution is zero. It ought not to be large, since you have the benefit of the best economic theory and I am a mere empiricist.

MBS

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