1) The Death of the Danube Theory:
Greg Nowell recently suggested that the explanation for the NATO actions in Yugoslavia were explained by anger over Serbian machinations to slow trade along the Danube with references specifically to German and Dutch interests. This does not wash. Why not?
Austria.
Nowell:
As Hummel observed on PKT, the canal link does in fact work through Hollanbd as well as Germany. As I posted on PKT (should have cc'd here), the "Danube thesis" does not require unanimity anymore than an analysis of a free trade faction in teh US is contradicted by the existence of protectionist pockets/groups, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if Austria would consider itself a potential loser in the development of E. Europe on the Danube axis.
Traded on the Danube was originally controlled by the European Commission of the Danube set up in 1856. Trade at that time was regulated from Ulm (S. Gemany) to the Black Sea. In May 1918 the Central Powers reduced membership to the border states and European coasts of the Black Sea. The 1919 Treaty of Versailles put back the 1856 commission but put Great Britain, Italy, and France, and Rumania on as members "provisionally." Not much was done in the interwar period to upgrade the trading facilities. Keynes' fear that inadequate economic development would follow the Versailles treaty was echoed in the primitive conditions of the Danube. Germany had control of the whole Danube by 1940. In 1948 the USSR joined the Danube commission as a "riparian" member; Germany was excluded, Austria was consultative only (till 1960). Trade volumes declined relative to the interwar period. For my two cents: the FX problems fo the eastern bloc and Austria's close relationship with Germany gave Austria essentially a protected situation vis a vis the Southern members of the Danube Commission.
It wasn't until the crackup of the USSR that the whole Holland-Caspian system was pursued vigorously. It's clear that a "developing E. Europe" will have to overcome the long developmental interregnum which dates from WWI through the crackup of the USSR/Eastern bloc. And Milosovic is in the way.
-- Gregory P. Nowell Associate Professor Department of Political Science, Milne 100 State University of New York 135 Western Ave. Albany, New York 12222
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