I like the spirit of this message. I could go to a rally like this, albeit with reservations discussed below. It's a nice corrective to some of the primitive anti-imperialism (or anti-Albanianism) on this list. If we all observed it, a lot of rancor would have been precluded.
But of course in calling for a halt to *all* NATO military action, we are only left with the following recourse for the put-upon Muslims:
> We call for an immediate return to diplomacy, by involving the
good offices of the United Nations, and through a direct
involvement of the Russian government, with every hope that this
will result in the return of the refugees to their homes in
Kosovo/a. . . . >
I wonder if anyone involved in the composition of this talked to anybody from the Muslim community, or to any Muslims on the left, and I wonder what they might have said. That's a real question, not a rhetorical one.
Underlying the call for a cessation of NATO withdrawal is a resignation to the 'normal' rampage of Serbian counter-insurgency forces in Kosova. Even worse, we seem to rule out a priori any source of information about atrocities against Muslims. The Western media always lie, except when they reveal information damaging to NATO, and the refugees lie because they want sympathy. I asked Louis who legitimate sources might be, and all he could supply is Misha Glenny. I suppose Robert Fiske would be another, but in any case no independent journalists can operate in areas controlled by Serbs to report atrocities that "might" be transpiring. (Duh) All they can do is roam around Serbia where, naturally, all they can report is the harm to Serbs from NATO and, occasionally, Milo. By this timetable, as Jim Devine indicated, we would never know about mass murder until years later, when there was enough calm in the area for people to start digging. I don't think this is acceptable.
Barkley, a model of erudition and objectivity for us all on this question, if not others ( :-) ), raises a similar point in one of his scenarios:
" 2) His Excellency Keeps On Fighting (ugh).
This would be incredibly stupid, but who knows? He now would lose all international political support, including from the Russians. "
If he's not being bombed, he doesn't need as much support.
"He would face a vigorous UCK/KLA campaign that he would be unable to defeat."
LP and others say the KLA is kaput. In any case, if Serbia can stand the bombing they can afford to play cowboys and indians with the KLA for years, spared the pain of the bombing.
" He would now be in a quagmire. After a bit, his internal opponents would revive, no longer facing the charge of treason for supporting bombers. "
We're still waiting for the tyrannical Hussein, among others, to be overthrown too. This is not much of a sop to Muslims.
" This would be one of the most positive outcomes of a cessation of bombing. Montenegro would secede and would be supported by the entire international community. That would be the end of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. "
Sooner or later he would have to sue for peace. Then"
Sooner or later Israel will have to make peace with the Palestinians, who in contrast to Kosova/Serbia, are nostril to nostril with Israelis on a daily basis. But nobody's holding their breath.
"there would have to be some kind of international peace- keeping force. Maybe he could retain formal sovereignty over Kosmet, but the longer he held out, the less likely that would be. Some kind of autonomy would have to emerge. Rugova would be his best bet, although he has totally damaged his credibility by rebuffing him so long. Rights of all minorities would have to be guaranteed by the outside force (again, definitely including the Russians). If the province became either an independent Kosova or a Kosova province of Albania, then a more general Balkans settlement would be advisable, including a union of Serbia with the Bosnian Srpska Republika, and possibly other changes and border adjustments. "
Sounds like a lengthy process.
" In any case, the Kosovar Albanians would not be worse off than they are now. "
TIME would not seem to be on their side in this scenario, in the sense that the longer it plays out, the more chance the Serbs have to drive them out of Kosova altogether.
> The bombing is not helping them in
anyway or slowing the Serbian campaign against them in
any way. And for sure, the bombing would halt the killling
and destruction elsewhere and rescue the US and NATO >
Right. The "for sure" here is enjoyed by the Serbs alone. Given a halt to all bombing, plus the lack of presence of peace-keepers on the ground, the national cause of Kosova is relegated to the same status of, say, Timor. In other words, they're screwed.
> from the quagmire of further involvement into which it is
sinking. (BTW, the almighty Albright continues to oppose
both troop entry and arming the UCK/KLA, and so therefore
so does Billy Boy). >
On a slightly different note, this affair will a good test of the military Keynesian hypothesis which, incidentally, I have no vested interest in refuting or supporting; the idea of the economy depending on military procurement is not implausible to me. The comments discounting military spending and arguing sans data (which is freely available) for some kind of "militarized economy" have been, uh, qualitative and hence, um, speculative, one might say.
The defense budget can go in any direction. There is fodder in recent events for the argument to "re-arm," per Patsy B. The Feds have lots of dough. Thus far nobody has proposed much in the way of increases, as I noted in providing data a week or so ago. The paper said the other day the DoD is talking about another four billion or so to pay for current operations in the Balkans. This is chump change. Total military spending is $276 billion, and the GDP is in the eight trillion neighborhood.
I also reiterate the political-economic issue looming over this -- what is the proper emphasis on five, ten, or even twenty billion more annually for defense (twenty -- about one percent of the Federal budget -- would be a lot, by recent historical standards), while the Feds propose to provide $130 billion and more annually (mostly from payroll taxes, to boot), to rentiers in return for government bonds? Or to roll god knows how many hundreds of billions of payroll tax revenue into the stock market for the sake of "saving Social Security." Hello?
No justice, no peace,
mbs