If only I was paid like one. Nobody really wants my brain. It wasn't much to begin with, and it's been further addled by these mailing lists.
> Why is avoiding *any* damage to his country worth even the
smallest chance
of losing face? He can go down in history as the leader under
whom NATO
inflicted terrible punishment on the Serbs, but they resisted and
they
endured and they prevailed (because NATO eventually went away),
thus
retaining the historical core lands of the Serbs for Serbia. He
can go down
in history as the leader who buckled under to NATO pressure,
starting the
chain of events that led to Kosovan independence. >
Being a politician, he can get 3/4's of a loaf and still come out smelling good. Second, I presume he is susceptible to some pressure founded on the costs of the bombing.
> If you were Milosevic, which would you choose? As long as he is
confident
that NATO will eventually get bored and go away, the first option
would
seem more attractive to Milosevic... >
It's not obvious how quickly NATO will get bored and go away. Since it involves NATO and the EU, this is evidently more important than Iraq, and there's no evident end to the punishment in that quarter. If I was Milo I'd stop the butchery and accept a limited UN peace-keeping presence in Kosovo, as long as its independence was precluded. From a Serbian nationalist standpoint, that looks like a victory to me.
I do not endorse the policy of interminable, indiscriminate bombing of the entire Serbian nation. That doesn't mean it can never "work," in the sense of forcing Milo to agree to some kind of compromise that saves face on both sides.
We will be able to gauge the insignificance of Kosova and humanitarianism -- deliberate or inadvertent -- on the part of NATO by the kind of deal they sign off on. Alternatively, if there is a full-scale ground invasion to secure Kosovan self-determination, my thesis on NATO is disproven. Finally, if NATO ends up taking over Yugoslavia in its entirety and imposing some kind of neo-liberal order, then the anti-imperialists are right about the basis for this war.
mbs