Krugman calls top on dollar

DANIEL.DAVIES at flemings.com DANIEL.DAVIES at flemings.com
Mon Aug 2 23:09:35 PDT 1999


Doug wrote: <<And don't forget the EU - they could bring capital home too, and what could the U.S. do? Not to mention U.S. investors, who could diversify out of domestic assets if the dollar weakened.>>

This might be happening now: the latest Reuters survey of UK fund managers has them all saying that they're planning to take profits on their US equities. On the other hand, I wouldn't read too much into this -- flow of funds matters, but the Reuters survey is a pretty poor indicator. (partly due to the survey methodology, partly due to the determined underperformance of the fund managers it interviews)

and

<<The fiscal and monetary squeeze in Europe is pure madness. No it's not madness; it's class war against the welfare state and high wages>>

In Germany and UK, for sure. In France, "franc fort" has an element of monetary lunacy for its own sake -- Trichet spent most of the 1980s believing in a strong franc as a national virility symbol against US hegemony. It was only after Maastricht that he started to do the "inflation" thing, having found (as one tends to do) a scientific theory which justified an already existing prejudice.

dd

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