>We'll see, won't we? For now, by conventional measures, the SK
>economy is rebounding, and even Japan may be turning the corner. I
>can't say it will continue with the same confidence you say it won't;
>I just read the numbers as they come out, and for the last 6 months
>or so the numbers have been >0.
Doug, it just seems that the numbers do tell us what the bases of these upturns are : in South Korea from consumption on the basis of rising fictitious capital from lower interest rates (how much of this consumption is debt powered--the WSJ didn't say) and in Japan from unsustainable deficit spending (Japan's upturn having helped South Korea). It just seems to that upturns on such bases, as indicated by the numbers, cannot go long or deep. Then throw in China's possible devaluation and the self-cancelling effect of Japanese growth on which SK depends: the rising yen. I am sure that I am missing something, but on the basis of the numbers in the WSJ/NYT, it seems to me that the Asian recovery is on the weakest of foundations. Or at least the materials out of which the foundation is being built are of a different nature.
I am not certain but very skeptical.
I am also very skeptical of movements to the euro crashing the dollar. It turns out that instead of using unaffiliated technology imports (Japan buys massive amounts of tech straight from US companies--see Myth of the Global Corporation), European companies are buying up US technology through acquisitions to compensate for tech backwardness (front page of WSJ a few days ago). The resultant capital inflow should put a bottom on the dollar decline. Where will the capital go in the case of a mad rush out of the US stock market?!?
Yours, Rakesh