----- Original Message ----- From: <alert at stratfor.com> To: <redalert at stratfor.com> Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 1999 9:35 AM Subject: ASEAN
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> STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - November 30, 1999
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> STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update
> November 30, 1999
>
>
> The Other Summit: Asia Meets in Manila
>
> Summary:
>
> While much of the West's attention is focused on the meeting of the
> World Trade Organization in Seattle, the informal summit of the
> Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) ended on Nov. 28. In
> its wake, much of Asia is attempting an unprecedented level of
> regional coordination. China, South Korea and Japan also attended.
> Shortly after the meeting, China even made a surprising concession.
> The region still has a long way to go. What keeps today's loose
> association of Asian countries from acting as a concerted bloc of
> Asian nations is a lack of unified purpose. The region only needs a
> spark - a compelling reason - to transform itself.
>
>
> Analysis:
>
> The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) concluded its
> informal summit in Manila on Nov. 28. Along with the leadership of
> the 10 members of ASEAN, the leaders of China, South Korea and
> Japan attended. At the meeting, Asia pressed an
> unprecedented drive toward greater regional cooperation. Needing to
> export beyond its own region, Asia is attempting to fashion itself
> into a bloc that can effectively compete against both the United
> States and the European Union.
>
> For the first time, ASEAN is considering establishing a permanent
> troika of member nations that will take the lead in dealing with
> urgent economic and security crises. Though the details are still
> vague, ministers from three nations would take initial
> responsibility for containing rapidly emerging trouble spots and
> dangers. Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam are reported to be likely
> candidates for leadership of the troika. ASEAN has experimented
> with a triad just once before, in dealing with Cambodia.
>
> At the Manila meeting, ASEAN also accelerated its move toward free
> trade among its founding members, shifting the deadline forward
> from 2015 to 2010. The free trade area would do away with tariffs
> between the region's six founding members: Indonesia, Malaysia, the
> Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Brunei. The four newest
> members - Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia - also would speed up
> the process. They would drive their own deadlines forward by three
> years -- from 2018 -- to eliminate tariffs.
>
> Both moves signal that Asia is moving with greater urgency toward
> regional cooperation and even behavior as a cohesive economic bloc.
> Both initiatives were approved unanimously. The discussion of a
> troika demonstrates that the region is moving away from its
> decidedly non-interventionist policy, which has precluded the
> region from interfering in any one nation's matters. The recent
> crisis in East Timor caught the region flat-footed. Without a
> cohesive regional response, the West rushed in to fill the vacuum
> in Timor. Accelerating the timetable for lifting tariffs suggests
> that Asia is also anxious to find some way to spark a larger
> economic recovery, while offsetting the influence of the West.
>
> In the wake of the Manila meetings, China has also made a
> significant gesture toward the region. At the summit, the Chinese
> delegation refused to sign a code of conduct that would have halted
> any new occupations of the contested Spratly Islands. But shortly
> afterward, Beijing made a surprise announcement on Nov. 29, saying
> that it would agree to joint development of the islands. Beijing
> has not laid aside its claim of sovereignty, but the Chinese are
> attempting to drive regional cooperation forward, even in the face
> of an important security dispute.
>
> But Asia is still hedging its bets by postponing important
> decisions. Revealing its remaining reluctance, ASEAN has put forth
> its traditionally Western-oriented members for the troika. They
> would not just deal with possible crises but also the resultant
> Western pressures to resolve those crises. ASEAN also studiously
> avoided a clear definition of how this triumvirate would work,
> declaring that such specifics are unnecessary until an emergency
> actually arises. The movement toward a free trade area, as well,
> doesn't solve the region's most pressing problem. Its economies
> cannot afford merely to continue swapping exports among themselves.
>
> Beyond ASEAN, the larger region must overcome -- or put aside --
> far more significant barriers to become a viable bloc. In
> particular, the security concerns of Northeast Asia will continue
> to pit one player against another. China's increasingly warm
> relations with North Korea will continue to harm more substantial
> ties with Japan and South Korea. The South Korean newspaper
> JoongAng Ilbo reported on Nov. 25 that China had just sold North
> Korea "massive" quantities of military equipment.
>
> Asia is now at a critical juncture. Increasingly, economic
> necessity propels the region toward greater cooperation. The region
> must find a way to counter the power and influence of the United
> States and Europe. Yet the speed with which Asian nations move
> toward one another is constrained by traditional security disputes
> and divisions.
>
> More than anything, Asia ultimately lacks a compelling reason to
> present a unified front to the rest of the world. Blocs form in
> reaction to threats. They did so at the end of World War II when
> the United States and the Soviet Union shaped their initial,
> respective alliances - and then re-shaped them throughout the Cold
> War in response to differing threats around the world.
>
> All that is now missing from Asia's economic and political equation
> is a threat or, at the very least, a catalytic event. Two examples
> present themselves. A truly regional emergency, such as a currency
> crisis, might be such an event. Or if Aceh erupted into full
> rebellion and threatened to finally unravel Indonesia, the region
> would be forced to adopt a common stance. ASEAN even went so far at
> the summit as to issue a statement expressing "full respect for the
> sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of
> Indonesia."
>
>
>
> (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/
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