From tbyfield at panix.com Sun Dec 12 05:27:22 1999
it's easy to tell that you're young ...
... and thus easy to tell that you're old?
(wtf?)
it's quite possible that you're correct in the sense that
the markets will continue to rise for longer than any bear
can bear. it's also quite possible that you're wrong.
I guess that just about covers it? Ted Byfield: 100% correct.
When are you starting a mutual fund?
if your goal is just to cop as many bucks as possible in
the short-term, fine, but do shut up about it.
This isn't about money, Ted; this is about trying desperately to box Doug into making irrational claims about the end of the bull market. He hates to do it, but he can't help himself. He feels that the market is out of whack and it *must* go back to where it came from for no other reason than ... well, I guess for no other reason. His latest one was simply that it had entered "old age" -- and we know what happened to Brezhnev when _he_ got old -- as if there's something natural or organic going on here.
And to me, that's funny.
It's especially funny when he does it for no reason whatsoever (Doug: why *did* you wake up that day and declare that the bull market was like Brezhnev?) and then the market goes up 15%.
It's easy to tell that you're old, Ted: you don't think that's funny.
if your goal is something bigger, though, then maybe talk
about that.
I know you come and go on this list, but I've said several times what I think is driving this bull market: a slick combination of tax policy, wherein the government gives a huge incentive for people to put money into their retirement plans which are run by people whose job it is to wake up in the morning, put on a suit, and go *buy* stocks -- they buy all day long, they wouldn't know what to do with cash if they sold, so they keep on buying; and an acute supply/demand situation wherin M&A activity and buybacks gobbles up stock faster than silly Linux companies can print more.
Until either of those things change (and perhaps both), I don't see a significant change in the direction of this market.
Doug's claim that the bull market is "showing signs of old age" is just some "reversion to the mean" swag that I think doesn't hold up. So you'll excuse me for needling him about it now and again.
/jordan