Question

[Jane Franklin]

I have received an email from someone who describes herself as "writing from the capitalist point of view" who alleges that the Tiananmen square demonstrations made things worse because
1.  The Chinese government was on the cusp of greater reforms which were curtailed
2.  The demonstrations gave the army more power, leading to greater possibilities of civil war
3.  The demonstrations forestalled technology transfer from the U.S. due to sanctions

In short, as she wrote, they were "useless", if not harmful.  Implicit in what she wrote is the idea that government elites and business people make the best decisions, and that popular movements only get in the way.

Now, on the one hand, she remarks that she has "no contacts among the Chinese masses", only the New Rich in Shanghai and Hong Kong.  On the other, she has a lot more economic knowledge than I do.  Everything I've read argues against what she says, but it's all wimpily historians rather than hard-edged economists.  I've lived in China and actually do have contacts among the masses, but then, the masses are pretty disorganized.

Should I bow to her superior sense of history and write off the demonstrations as foolish and ill-timed?  Thoughts?

In continued admiration, regardless of gender gaps,
Jane