Let me confess that what triggered this betting in me was an apolitical accountant from the pension department coming to me saying that the Y2K problem might cause some civil disaster in water systems shutting down and the like. This has probably been discussed before on the list, but I didn't read much of the Y2K posts in the months past. It just seems that the top heights of this market depend on very precise and rapid electronic trading, n 'est-ce pas ? And those highest levels will be vulnerable to any computer crack ups, even if in Brazil or somewhere, let alone New York. Can they really keep this house of cards up with any significant computer problems ? I'm not even talking about production breakdowns or civil disasters. Just the Wall Street computers. Won't there be a simulation of a financial crisis that will be the same thing as a financial crisis, because they have to go full steam everyday to keep things going at this level ?
Charles Brown
>>> Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> 02/25/99 04:24PM >>>
Max Sawicky wrote:
>Presumably a fall of the market by some percentage
>constitutes a crash.
Also within a specified short time period. The 1973-75 bear market took about 40% off the S&P, but it happened over a long time, and so ain't a crash in my book, just a bear market. My bet is for no crash, but a long bear market - someday, who knows when.
Doug