I agree that London is under serious pressure now and ultimately this is what matters over 20-30 years. Britain punching above its weight because of its willingness to join in military activities with the USA, giving it a semblance of international credibility without having to win true consensus, will not last for ever, and can be finessed.
An article in today's International Herald Tribune details the common criticism of Britain's attempt to straddle Europe and the USA. The Europeans, that is the real Europeans (!) are well used to handling this. One lever will be for Europe to take more of a lead internationally, including militarily. Another will be around the unification of Europe's defence industry, from which Britain cannot afford to be left out.
Another may be moves towards global financial management, with Europe and Japan now ready to be more interventionist, despite US reluctance. Britain may promote this in order to be able to straddle the Atlantic a bit longer.
Whether this is ultimately possible depends on how much you believe in ultra-imperialism. I do not think that nowadays inter-imperialist rivalry automatically leads to war. There are many other ways the conflict can be managed. But that does not mean that such conflicts have disappeared, or are unimportant.
London presumably hopes it can retain its advantage over Frankfurt by reason of having the lead in the west European time zone, and by the more international nature of its city. But Frankfurt is the centre of the concentration of capital represented by the Euro, and it surely must grow in dominance. The complex process of unification of the European Stock Exchanges may disguise much of this rivalry, and the results may depend on the unpredicted workings of certain details that cannot as yet be foreseen, but of the technical sort that Sol describes. Yet the ultimate gravity towards Frankfurt ought to prevail.
Meanwhile an opinion poll in yesterday's Guardian shows majorities against Euro entry in all strata of the British population, and in both genders. It is unlikely that Labour would like to take on an open referendum campaign for entry, this side of the next election.
Chris Burford
London