can SS be saved by buying stocks?

Max Sawicky sawicky at epinet.org
Thu Jul 29 10:59:28 PDT 1999


As I recall the argument, Greenstein just said the Trustees were right - dismal productivity growth plus dismal labor force growth equals dismal GDP growth. But it's a known fact (as my mother says when she can't produce a source) that typically labor force and productivity growth figures move in opposite directions.

Someone - Max? - could speak to Greenstein's motives, but my suspicion is that he's trying to curry favor with the administration. But I'm a hopeless cynic.
>>

G-stein buys into the mainstream neo-classical nostrum that national saving is the basis for economic growth. The Social Security reform proposed by G-stein, Clinton, and others is a total fraud; it's aimed at raising saving and capital formation. That's the way they "fix" Social Security.

It is also a fraud because given prospective budget surpluses, the Federal government will have no cash shortfall for 50 years. All present benefits under Soc Sec and Medicare etc. could be paid, the surplus run, the debt eliminated.

The logic of the policy is that when government borrows less or saves more, interest rates go down, and business firms borrow more for business investment in plant and equipment. This causes the economy to grow and creates ever more, higher-paying jobs. Oddly enough, the budget projections show that, over the period in which the Federal debt is almost eliminated, interest rates do not change.

The Social Security actuaries take no account of such policies in their projections. So we could have an agreement tomorrow, signed in blood, for the Feds to run surpluses until they amassed a hoard of assets equal to the GDP, and the projections would be unchanged and we would still have the "crisis." By contrast, if Clinton signed a bill tomorrow crediting the Trust Fund with a gazillion dollars, the crisis would be eliminated by the Trustees' methodology.

Ain't nothin funnier than economic policy.

mbs



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