Okay, it's 2030 and nearly all the Baby Boomers are retired (some are dead). The labor force as a percentage of the total population has been declining. The OASDI is no longer funded on a pay as you go basis. Is this a "crisis"? Of course not.
1. Productivity gains are likely (above). 2. Renewed spirit of openness in America leads to liberalizing of immigration laws. 3. The federal government is able to pay (Ellen's points--the best way to deal with this is to provide for investments that will foster 1 above). Public sentiment will force them to pay after years in which other programs "raided" SS. Also, the federal government will have a lot of options (of course many of them regressive) to collect enough money.
It's a known fact (see above), any model that shows that the above situation is a crisis does one or both of two things:
1. Uses a static model that does not take into account the fact that even though boomers will retire, they will still be consumers. And someone has to make the snakeoil, computer-driven cars, virtual 60's machines, etc. that these people are going to demand (much of which will be bought with the money from social security. Maybe imports will rise but so what. Will have a finger so deep in the whole world's pie that nobody would ever dare to ask to see our pennies.
2. Ignores the pay as you go nature of OASDI and uses projections of the trust fund for smokescreen purpose's (Ellen's point).
I have not read any of the Nation pieces.
Jim
"Why shouldn't the American people take half my money from me? I took all of it from them."
Edward Albert Filene (1869-1937)