heads rolling, says Stratfor

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Jul 30 09:28:52 PDT 1999


[from those mysterious folks at Stratfor <http://www.stratfor.com/world/Commentaries/w9907300300.htm>]

<0300 GMT, 990730 - Washington Begins the Post-Kosovo Purge The first of the heads responsible for the Kosovo crisis rolled on July 27, when Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Wesley Clark was sacked. Clark was ordered to resign his post in April, three months before the end of his current term, to be replaced by Air Force General Joseph Ralston, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). Officially, Clark's term was shortened because otherwise Ralston, whose term as JCS vice chairman expires in February, would have been forced to retire. Instead, it is Clark who is being pensioned off, though Defense Secretary William Cohen reportedly recommended Clark be offered an ambassadorship.

Pentagon and White House officials were quick to assert that Clark's removal did not reflect any dissatisfaction with the general, insisting that it was merely part of a broader normal rotation of commanders. "No one is being pushed out. No one is being forced out," said White House spokesman Joe Lockhart. "Clark did a great job," said an anonymous White House official, quoted by the New York Times. "He won the war, for God's sake!" An anonymous Pentagon official assured the Times, "If this was in any way dissatisfaction with Clark, he'd be moved out long before."

The White House could not say, "Clark helped push the president into an ill advised military quagmire, from which escape was achieved only through some particularly duplicitous diplomacy and buying off the Russians." After all, it has already claimed a triumphant military victory in Operation Allied Force. The White House could not say, "Throughout the war, Clark critically damaged U.S. relations with its European NATO allies, and his continued criticism of those allies makes reconciliation extremely difficult." After all, Operation Allied Force was a triumph of cooperation among NATO members faced with a bold new mission. The White House cannot say, "Clark's binary view of Belgrade and the Kosovar Albanians makes control of the situation in Kosovo and a quick and safe exit from the Serbian province nearly impossible." After all, Milosevic remains an indicted war criminal, and the Serbs are responsible for untold atrocities. And the White House can not mention the fact that Clark and Secretary of Defense William Cohen -a man Clinton does trust - are so estranged that Cohen must relay his commands to the general, including the order to step down, through JCS Chief Hugh Shelton. And so, officially, Clark is simply at the mercy of an unfortunate scheduling problem.

General Clark was one of four top Clinton advisors most responsible for pushing the U.S. and NATO into a military confrontation over Kosovo. According to a number of reports that emerged during and after the war, Secretary of State Madeline Albright in January 1999 presented the plan under which NATO should threaten air strikes. She was backed up by Clark and by envoys Richard Holbrooke and Robert Gelbard, who argued that Milosevic would buckle under a day or two of bombing, if not merely the threat of air strikes. They, in turn, were backed by a sea of anonymous analysts in the U.S. intelligence agencies who, until the bombing began, repeatedly argued that Milosevic would quickly submit under air attacks. Skeptics included Cohen, Shelton, presidential advisor Sandy Berger, and presumably Ralston.

Now NATO has won in Kosovo, or at least it has declared victory, though being stuck between the KLA and the growing threat of hostile Serb paramilitaries is a questionable triumph. The White House must now set about repairing relations with Russia, China, and its NATO allies, and seeking a way out of Kosovo. Enough time has passed for the "victory" to be accepted as common knowledge and the "heroes" of that victory to be pensioned off, hopefully making way for a team that can clean up the mess.

Technically, Clark is not the first head to roll. His is just the most public. Gelbard is being dispatched as ambassador to Indonesia, where it is questionable whether he can make the situation any worse than it already is. Holbrooke's bid for the post of U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations has been blocked twice by Republicans, which is understandable considering they are fond neither of him, nor of the UN. However, the Clinton administration has noticeably failed to lift a finger in his defense. Holbrooke will probably end up with his UN seat, though again, it will be more of a reflection of the Republicans' contempt for the international body than a tribute to Holbrooke's diplomatic skills, and both he and the organization will be equally ignored. And now Clark is being shuffled off to retirement ahead of schedule. That leaves Albright.



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