Mortgages at 7.625%

Greg Nowell GN842 at CNSVAX.Albany.Edu
Wed Jun 2 15:02:39 PDT 1999


Yow! Yields on treasuries barely budged today but the 30 year zero point conforming is now just about where it was in Sept 1997.

It's an interesting example to follow, i.e., when there is upward drift the rates on consumer loans of all types tend to outpace the upward movement on bonds. By contrast there is stickiness on the down side. One can impute this to cartelistic effects of the big institutions (thinking of it as an inventory problem where you want to clear your stock at today's price esp. since it is higher than yesterday's price) or alternatively to investor timidity, demanding not just the anticipated higher rate but a premium in case they happen to be wrong.

This has *got* to have an effect down the line on housing and construction, which is booming according to recent reports, but that was all based on earlier months and lower rates...

-- Gregory P. Nowell Associate Professor Department of Political Science, Milne 100 State University of New York 135 Western Ave. Albany, New York 12222

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