Euro on the slide

Chris Burford cburford at gn.apc.org
Wed Jun 2 15:59:14 PDT 1999


At the beginning of the year I welcomed the start of the euro. It smoothly unified 13 currencies (if I recall the number correctly). A triumph of technical management based of course on computer technology, comparable to the gentle docking of space stations.

The class content of this process has of course been controlled by the ruling class, finance capitalism, but like all technical feats in history it is also a feat of human skill and ingenuity.

It has massive potential implications for the development of a world currency, which would lay bare more starkly the political interests behind the management of the world economy more than the unseen hand of the market does at present.

BUT the predictions that the Euro would be strong, would soon rival the dollar as a reserve currency have not been fulfilled.

There are several reasons and such a big shift in expectations demands comment. I hope others will wade in.

In response to the 1998 world financial crisis the central banks of the west agreed together to lower interest rates to keep their economies circulating. The USA has done that more successfully than Europe, and the fact that Europe is now expanding less fast, without actually being in recession makes its economy comparatively weaker.

But also there is a question of how much the European Central Bank wants the euro to be weaker. After they had got rid of the all too public Lafontaine, it was easier to make some gestures but not to vigorous ones to maintain the value of the Euro. Critically the left of centre Italian government has just won a loosening of financial criteria on the grounds that further retrenchment is irrational, and would cause more unemployment, and Germany significantly has seen no particular reason vigorously to oppose that.

Chris Burford

London



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