EastWest Institute
Russian Regional Report
Vol. 4, No. 22, 10 June 1999
Russian Cohesion Index: -29 (down 2 this week)
Disintegration.............T.L..............0..............Democratic Federalism
(T = this week; L = last week; 0 = 17 March)
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For a graphic display of the Russian Cohesion Index since 17 March, see:
http://www.iews.org/RRRabout.nsf/pages/Russian+Cohesion+Index
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----- Despite a few bright spots, foreign investment in Russia was way off during the first quarter of this year, following the economic crisis of August 1998. Not much improvement can be expected until well after the June 2000 presidential elections. (-2)
----- Governors are continuing to move the date of their elections to suit their own political purposes. Following the successful use of this technique by Belgorod Governor Yevgenii Savchenko, now Novgorod, Omsk, Tomsk, and Moscow have or are about to push the elections forward. Playing with the rules of the game like this for short-term political gain will only increase the cynicism of voters. Nevertheless, this trend seems to be gaining momentum. (-2)
----- The governors are continuing to seek control over major regional enterprises and the natural monopolies. This kind of "decentralization" is unlikely to stimulate economic improvement. The governors' desire to grab more resources seems to be accelerating as more of them come up for reelection. (-1)
----- The growing importance of the extremist Russian National Unity cannot be ignored as it seems to be able to take advantage of regional economic difficulties in places such as Tver. Although Moscow Mayor Yurii Luzhkov has waged a visible campaign against it, some local officials seem willing to support the group. (-1)
+++++ George Soros is now devoting much of his philanthropic work in Russia to the regions. Hopefully, his highly visible efforts will stimulate the interests of other major funders. (+2)
+++++ Russia is slowly building up domestic industry to replace the ties it lost with the dissolution of the USSR. Efforts to produce buses domestically, often in cooperation with foreign makers, will reduce the country's dependence on costly imports. (+2)