JASPER BECKER
One thing at least is clear after the visit by the
hapless Thomas Pickering, the United States
envoy: the Chinese Government is not going to
drop the subject of the bombing of the
Belgrade embassy for many years to come.
"They are going to milk it all the way. It will be
like the Japanese and their war crimes and
could go on for years and years," a European
diplomat said.
On Friday the Beijing Youth Daily carried yet
another full page story about the 731 Unit
outside Harbin where the Japanese carried out
gruesome experiments. Although the events
happened more than 60 years ago, the
newspaper linked the report directly to the
US-Japanese Defence pact which China
strongly opposes.
All the signs suggest the anti-foreign
propaganda campaign will continue. Many in
the mainland believe China planned to reject
Mr Pickering's explanations even before he
arrived. Analysts point out news of the visit
was not revealed until after the
Under-Secretary of State had left China and
the media has kept up a steady stream of
anti-Nato and anti-US propaganda.
Observers hold widely differing views on how
long the freeze will last but agree it will be
certainly until this autumn. The United States
may not make a further move to placate China
for some time, especially while President Bill
Clinton remains focused on establishing peace
in Kosovo.
Pessimists note the Americans have made little
effort to sell their side of the story, leaving it to
Beijing to attack Mr Clinton's explanation of
the "tragic mistake".
Mr Pickering did not speak to the Chinese
media or reach out to a wider audience via
interviews on international television news
networks, instead giving an off the record
briefing to reporters from three American
papers.
The next stage might see the US negotiating a
financial compensation package, although the
Chinese Government could encourage the
families of the victims to begin a class action in
US courts.
Some analysts see some moderation of China's
demands in the statement put out by official
news agency Xinhua.
"What is striking is what is not on the list and
the threats that they do not make," foreign
affairs analyst Gerald Segal wrote in an open
forum discussion on the Internet.
"China may or may not believe the US
explanation, but they are not prepared to do
anything serious about it. They make no
significant threats and no serious demands. In
practice, they proved to be full of hot air," Mr
Segal said.
He believes the whole Kosovo crisis has
exposed how powerless China is - far from
wielding the kind of influence some had
claimed for it when they described it as the
next superpower, a rival to the US. Instead,
China has been excluded from any role in the
Balkans and could do nothing to halt Nato's
actions or stop a United Nations resolution
legitimising the Nato peacekeeping force.
"This has cut China down to size. We see its
influence is no greater than in the Iraq war,
eight years ago," agreed a European diplomat.
If that is the case, and China has been shown
to be weaker than believed, it may not be able
to use the bombing as a stick with which to
beat concessions out of Washington on key
issues like entry into the World Trade
Organisation (WTO) - if that is its intention.
This has alarmed American scholar David
Zweig, at Hong Kong's University of Science
and Technology, who fears the dispute might
further worsen bilateral relations.
"China can't back down now, and the US has
nothing else to offer," he said. "I would have
thought that China would want to get past this
one and move on to WTO. But clearly, they
prefer to keep this fight going for a while."
Having both whipped up public support behind
Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic, now a
defeated and indicted war criminal, and having
repeatedly said the embassy bombing was
deliberate and not a mistake, the Chinese
Government has painted itself into a corner.
"Accepting Pickering's explanation might
trigger more violent protests, this time aimed at
the government," Professor Zweig said.
It is a view with which some Chinese
observers concur, albeit phrased differently.
"It is very difficult for the Chinese
Government to take any other kind of
diplomatic position because many Chinese
people are not satisfied with this answer," said
Professor Zhang Zhongyun of the Central
Party's School of Politics and Law.
"Also, it is true that ordinary people think that
China has lost a lot of status in the world," he
said and added, "but, of course, China has not
sacrificed any of its principles".
It is now thought that China will have to push
the US to force a senior figure to resign and
accept responsibility in order to save Beijing's
face and to allow a restoration of relations.
"I think they have to make a painful decision
to punish someone rather senior. It is obvious
that decision [to mistakenly bomb the
embassy] was not made by someone of low
ranking. It won't help relations if they simply
find a scapegoat regardless of the feelings of
the Chinese," Professor Zhang said.
Other analysts are more concerned about how
an impasse in Sino-US relations might affect
the mainland's leadership. It is to the advantage
of conservative forces to continue playing up
latent anti-foreigner feelings and the need for
increased defence spending to boost China's
global standing.
At the same time, there is now a widespread
perception that Premier Zhu Rongji's position
has been damaged and that, in the current
climate, he will find it more difficult to push
through urgently needed economic reforms.
These reforms, which are linked to the terms
for WTO membership that Premier Zhu
negotiated in Washington, could pull in foreign
investment and give a shot in the arm to the
flagging domestic economy.
"There is a feeling that this government is
floundering both on the domestic front and in
its foreign policy. They seem to be all adrift,"
said an Asian diplomat.
China's economy is still slowing down and,
instead of radical reforms, observers fear that
the central Government is placing its hopes on
pumping more money into the ailing
state-owned enterprises through the stock
market and the banking sector.
This week President Jiang Zemin was touring
depressed northwestern industries trying to
rally morale but without offering any clear new
policies.
Although observers do not call it a rift, they
say a "two line" struggle is emerging: it is
thought Mr Jiang has always favoured a more
protectionist line than Mr Zhu and has
criticised the market opening concessions Mr
Zhu promised in America.
Cautious domestic policies and a search for a
new foreign policy that would reduce
dependence on the US might lead nowhere.
Strengthening ties with India and Russia to
battle American "hegemonism" can do nothing
to further China's aims of accessing more
capital, advanced technology and export
markets.
Some analysts suspect that, after the summer
when emotions have cooled, a sense of reality
will set in and the embassy bombing issue will
be allowed to fade into the background.
It will remain a wound to be aired when
necessary but will not, in the end, be allowed
to impede the commercial interests which are
so powerfully pulling Americans and Chinese
together.