> Doug wrote about Saddam:
>
>> but it's clear the U.S. didn't want to depose him,
>> only shorten his leash a bit.
>>
> [Seth Ackerman]
>
> Actually, they really do very much want to get rid of Saddam,
>but they want to replace him with some clone from the military, or
>perhaps a junta.
Well, this is what I had in mind, along with Bush's decision to stop the war before marching on Baghdad (Eugene Genovese's main reservation in voting for Bush in '92, by the way).
Doug
----
New York Times - January 29, 1999
U.S. General Warns of Dangers in Trying to Topple Iraqi
By PHILIP SHENON
The general who commands American forces in the Persian Gulf today openly questioned the Administration's new policy of supporting Iraqi opposition groups in the hope they will overthrow President Saddam Hussein.
In blunt testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, the Marine Corps commander, Gen. Anthony Zinni, said, ''I will be honest: I don't see an opposition group that has the viability to overthrow Saddam at this point.''
General Zinni said the policy of supporting the dissidents, which was embraced by President Clinton late last year as a cornerstone of American policy in dealing with Iraq, ''would be very difficult, and I think if not done properly, could be very dangerous.''
The general, who leads the United States Central Command, which directs American military forces throughout the Middle East, said that the Administration had identified about 90 Iraqi opposition groups but that ''they have little if any viability.'' He continued, ''Even if we had Saddam gone, we could end up with 15, 20 or 90 groups competing for power.''
The general's open criticism drew expressions of alarm from elsewhere in the Administration, which has attempted to promote a unified front in its support for opposition groups that might topple the Iraqi Government.
Even as General Zinni was testifying on Capitol Hill, Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright jetted across the Middle East, trying to drum up support among Arab leaders for the new American strategy.
Last week the Administration identified seven dissident groups that could be eligible for a share of $97 million in military aid allocated by Congress last year and approved by President Clinton. Also last week, the Administration named a veteran foreign service officer, Frank Ricciardone, as its special representative to the Iraqi opposition.
Administration spokesmen did not directly criticize General Zinni. They insisted, however, that whatever the general's concerns over the policy, President Clinton remained committed to helping Iraqi opposition groups that seek to bring down Mr. Hussein.
''The Administration is determined to redouble its efforts to work closely with the members of the Iraqi opposition in order to promote regime change in Iraq,'' said James Foley, a State Department spokesman.
''The important point is that we have begun this effort,'' he said. ''We have accelerated our outreach with members of the Iraqi opposition, credible groups who have support inside Iraq and who can work, if they work together, towards hastening the advent of a democratic regime.''
He said he would ''fully endorse General Zinni's conclusion that we believe that this is not going to be an easy or short-term effort.''
General Zinni's criticism of Iraqi opposition groups is in fact widely shared within the Administration, although no other senior official has been willing to state that view so publicly since President Clinton, under pressure from Congress, signed the aid to dissidents into law last year.
Most of the dissident groups are poorly organized. Western diplomats who have dealt with them say their leaders spend much more time feuding with one another than trying to unite behind a strategy to overthrow President Hussein. General Zinni, who oversaw relief efforts to the Kurdish minority in northern Iraq after they were attacked by the Iraqi Army in the weeks after the 1991 gulf war, suggested that there could be chaos -- not only in Iraq but among its oil-rich neighbors -- if rival Iraqi opposition parties overthrew President Hussein.
''The last thing we need is a disintegrated, fragmented Iraq,'' he said. ''Saddam should go. There's not a doubt in my mind. But it is possible to create a situation that could be worse. And that's my concern. These groups are very fragmented.''
American support for the Iraqi opposition is part of what the Administration announced last year was its new two-step approach towards Iraq: in the long term, to seek the ouster of President Hussein through support for Iraqi dissidents; in the short term, to prevent him -- by force if necessary -- from threatening his neighbors.
The Pentagon announced that force was necessary again today when two American warplanes dropped bombs on an antiaircraft artillery site in northern Iraq after observing firing from the site. Military spokesmen said the two F-15E's fighters returned safely to base after dropping two bombs on the site. There were no immediate reports on damage to the Iraqi installation.