Russia & China

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Tue May 11 11:13:12 PDT 1999


ANALYSIS-NATO attack moves Russia, China closer By Adam Tanner

MOSCOW, May 11 (Reuters) - NATO's fatal strike against the Chinese embassy in Belgrade could bring Russia and China closer in the long term and strengthen Moscow's hand as a mediator in the war in Yugoslavia, foreign policy experts said on Tuesday.

``China was not especially outspoken up until now, but now that it directly impacts them they should be stronger in their support of Russia,'' said Alexander Yakovlev, a foreign relations professor at the Academy of Sciences' Far East Institute.

``If it receives active Chinese support, naturally Russia's role will grow and become more influential.''

Russia has steadfastly opposed the seven-week-old NATO air war against Yugoslavia, a fellow Slav and Orthodox Christian state, but in recent weeks had been moving closer to NATO in trying to find a diplomatic solution.

China had also opposed the air strikes, but the death of three of its citizens and wounding of more than 20 in NATO's accidental strike against China's embassy in Belgrade on Friday has brought Beijing even more in tune with the Russian line.

``This event will have consequences in our relations with China, no doubt about it,'' said a Foreign Ministry official. While ruling out formal alliances, he expected relations, which have improved in recent years, to continue to grow closer.

China had strong ties with Moscow after its 1949 Communist revolution, but these soon worsened and border skirmishes broke out in the late 1960s.

With the recent warming, top-level visits have become more routine. President Boris Yeltsin's special envoy on Yugoslavia, former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, held talks in Beijing on Tuesday with Chinese President Jiang Zemin.

``The main principle is to stop the bombing and that is the main position,'' Chernomyrdin said of China's stance.

Russia has taken the ``stop the bombing'' line since the war started, and believes every NATO strike that goes astray and kills civilians has strengthened its arguments.

The Russian daily Sevodnya highlighted the new diplomatic complexities following the Chinese embassy attack in its Tuesday front-page headline.

``Viktor Chernomyrdin is sent to the 'Eastern Front','' it wrote, adding that Moscow may seek to use the situation to strengthen strategic ties with Beijing.

Domestic Russian political factors are likely to play a complicating role in the coming days as parliament's lower house, the Duma, prepares to begin debating five impeachment charges against Yeltsin on Thursday.

The president was particularly bellicose in his anti-NATO rhetoric a month ago until the Duma -- which has strongly backed Yugoslavia -- postponed the discussion. Yeltsin could resume a similar tough line to appease his domestic adversaries.

Chernomyrdin has taken a different tack in the lead-up to presidential elections next year, which he says he will contest, by projecting an image of calm if unexciting stability.

``There should not be any sabre-rattling. That would be stupid,'' he said in an interview published in Tuesday's Komsomolskaya Pravda.

In the longer term, experts see China not only strengthening Moscow's hand in shaping the diplomatic outcome in Yugoslavia, but perhaps even moving towards a new grouping to counterbalance the West.

``If the United States wants to unite Russia and China in a struggle against it, they can consider they are going down the right path,'' said commentator Alexei Shcherbakov, a former Soviet political prisoner. ``A common enemy is emerging.''



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list