I also have to agree with Enrique on his observation about the cheeriness of industry spokesmen. I've seen countless articles stating that the industry is climbing out of a slump, but the numbers don't really look so hot when you check them. For instance, a recent second page article on semis in Electronic News screams "Chips Climb in March," yet even in the first paragraph it states that the 3 month sales figures are down.
Furthermore, there's the other demon in electronics, the elusive Y2K problem: --- Electronic News May 10, page 1: Inventories May Grow Due to Y2K By Robert Ristelhueber
Phoenix--Concern over the Y2K problem may prompt OEMs to bank excess inventory in the fourth quarter as a hedge against unexpected delays by suppliers.
The burst of orders in the fourth quarter could lead to shortages of some parts and rising prices in a market that has been lulled into complacency by several years of oversupply, said chief executive officers of chip and equipment companies at last weeks' InStat Forum in Scottsdale, AZ.
"Many of the customers we have spoken to have edicts from their managements and boards that they will hold a certain amount of inventory going into Y2K," said Steve Sanghi, chairman and chief executive officer of Microchip Technology Inc., Chandler Ariz. "The numbers I've heard are anywhere from two to three weeks."
... snip ...
Michael Hackworth, chairman of Cirrus Logic Inc., agreed that an inventory bubble is likely late this year, and added that some projects will likely be put on hold in the third quarter due to Y2K. "A lockdown will start about Labor Day, and it unlocks around March 31," he said. "If you are going to install some enterprise software doing payroll, you are absolutely not going to do that in the lockdown space.” ---
EN is available online (www.electronicnews.com), but the pages are so full of ads I don't have the patience to check back all the time.
Julie Shearer Silicon Engines julie at siliconengines-ltd.com