EastWest Institute
Russian Regional Report
Vol. 4, No. 20, 27 May 1999
Russian Cohesion Index: -22 (up 4 this week)
Disintegration................L..T..........0..............Democratic Federalism
(T = this week; L = last week; 0 = 17 March)
*****See the RRR website (http://www.iews.org/rrrabout.nsf) for a graphic
display of the Russian Cohesion Index since 17 March.*****
+++++ Although the situation in Karachaevo-Cherkesiya remains unstable, the federal government is taking sensible actions to prevent the situation from deteriorating. Perhaps Prime Minister Sergei Stapashin learned a better way to conduct Moscow's Caucasus policy following the disastrous war in Chechnya. This could be the beginning of a positive new trend. (+5)
+++++ In a recent interview, Chuvashiya President Nikolai Fedorov discussed the negative consequences of signing secret treaties between the federal government and the regions. This is just one step in making center-periphery relations more transparent. It could be the start of more concerted attempts to put Russian federalism on a sounder footing. (+3)
+++++ Russian regional leaders are organizing themselves to make the State Duma a more productive source of legislation to bring the country out of its economic crisis. The current Duma incumbents clearly think that the regional leaders might succeed as they have launched an investigation of the governors' political activities. A better Duma would definitely improve the situation, but it is not clear if the governors could deliver even if they gain a majority, especially since they seem bent on protectionism. (+1)
----- Kaliningrad's political leadership continues to block business development in the region. Now at least local businessmen are loudly complaining about the situation. Hopefully, they will organize politically to protect their own interests. In the past, the young, pro-business electorate has been apathetic. Maybe the poor leadership of many regional leaders will energize them. (-2)
----- The national election season is just beginning and there are already scandals surrounding the electoral commission in regions such as Saratov. Such problems call into question the sanctity of the elections. The only bright spot is that watchdog groups such as For Fair Elections are bringing some of the most egregious violations to light. (-2)
----- Governors from Belgorod to Primorskii Krai like to maintain a strong grip on the regional media. The 30 May elections in Belgorod will show just how well controlling the media translates into electoral support. (-1)