Smooth growth

Rob Schaap rws at comserver.canberra.edu.au
Wed Oct 6 15:07:06 PDT 1999


G'day Doug,

Just couldn't stay away ... I kept peeking at the archive anyway ...

So communications technology has helped control US inventories and consumer spending has been supporting the US economy. And perhaps an economy so dominant that it can export much of the globe's volatility to other economies through its finance sector, and so smug in this dominance that it'll happily secure short-to-medium growth by caning its current account and exposing its credit sector to unprecedented residential and corporate debt-financing might look smooth for a while.

But globalism cuts both ways, and the list of thinkable scenarios by which interest rates could hit the credit sector or foreign money could leave US markets, or e-commerce could cut profits, or revitalised labour could do the same, or Chinese domestic turmoil could cut projections, or blah blah yadda-da.

Keynes's philosopher-king lever-wallah could have done the same if the second and third worlds and the longer term weren't his responsibility.

What say you?

Cheers, Rob.



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