Balkans trade bottled up by blown-up bridges
Copyright 1999 Christian Science Monitor Service
By LUCIAN KIM
NOVI SAD, Yugoslavia (October 7, 1999 12:24 a.m. EDT
http://www.nandotimes.com) - The three bridges that spanned the Danube
River in this northern Serbian city are little more than monuments to
the punishing 11-week NATO air campaign that the United States led
against Yugoslavia this spring.
Crumpled and collapsed from direct hits by NATO bombs, the now defunct
bridges hulk helplessly in the water, cutting off the two sides of the
city and blocking river trade on southeastern Europe's most important
waterway, which stretches more than 1,700 miles from Germany through
Austria and the Balkans to the Black Sea.
As a result, Hungarian and Slovak barges are stuck in Ukrainian and
Romanian ports, while Bulgarian ships idle at Budapest docks.
But it will take more than cranes and bulldozers to clear the logjam
at Novi Sad. It will take a major political breakthrough.
The bankrupt Yugoslav government insists that since NATO caused the
mess, it must help finance the cleanup and reconstruction of Novi
Sad's bridges. As long as Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic
remains in power, the West will neither commit aid to rebuilding the
bridges at Novi Sad nor include Yugoslavia in its "Balkan Stability
Pact" for the region.
For neighboring countries, the wait is bringing dire economic
consequences. "No regional development is possible without
Yugoslavia," says a Bulgarian diplomat based in Belgrade. "I'm not
optimistic about the regime here. But Yugoslavia has to be a member of
the Stability Pact and the process of European integration."
Last week, the transportation ministers of Bulgaria, Romania, and
Ukraine appealed to the European Union (EU) to fund the removal of
river debris. The Budapest-based Danube Commission estimates that
repairs could cost as much as $92 million and take as long as four
years.
For the poorer countries along the lower Danube, the river is the
cheapest transportation route to the markets of Western Europe. With
the Danube blocked at Novi Sad, their fragile economies are suffering
huge losses. Romania claims losses of $90 million, while Ukraine has
lost $70 million, and Bulgaria $100 million. An estimated 3,000
Romanian workers have been laid off, and Bulgaria's state shipping
company has had to fire 500 employees.
"Danube transportation accounts for one of the most important sources
of economic growth," says Aleksandar Kovacevic, an independent
economic analyst in Belgrade. "Gross national product in Serbia cannot
grow if transportation on the Danube is not increasing."
The same correlation between river trade and economic growth exists in
Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine, says Kovacevic.
A bypass canal around Novi Sad exists, but Yugoslavia says it is for
domestic use only. It has permitted Russian and Ukrainian barges to
use it; those countries opposed NATO airstrikes. But Romania, along
with Bulgaria and new NATO member Hungary, granted NATO use of their
airspace. Romanian shippers have retaliated by prohibiting Yugoslav
barges from traveling through the Danube-Black Sea channel.
Belgrade analyst Kovacevic, who has worked intensively on navigation
problems on the Danube, says for Western Europe - especially Germany -
the blockage of the river is actually a boon. For one, activity on the
Rhine River and at Atlantic ports increases. And the competitiveness
of central European industry, traditionally dependent on raw materials
transported up the Danube, decreases.
"The real problem of the Stability Pact is that it doesn't have
technical provisions," adds Kovacevic. Navigation on the river is
still governed by the antiquated Danube Convention, largely dictated
by the Soviet Union in the aftermath of World War II. "If you miss
this chance to set up regulations on the Danube, you won't have
regional stability," he says.
This is not the first time that turmoil in the Balkans has caused
economic hardship for the struggling economies of the lower Danube.
When sanctions were imposed on Belgrade in 1992 over its support for
Bosnia's Serbs, vital land and water routes through Yugoslavia were
strictly controlled, leading to a steep drop in trade. The embargo
also spawned a wide network of organized crime in the region - perhaps
the legacy of the Balkan wars that will last the longest.
"It's no secret that even during the embargo, fuel and other goods
went from Bulgaria and Romania to Yugoslavia," says the Bulgarian
diplomat. "The embargo was a catalyst for the appearance of organized
crime in Bulgaria."
While the West has pledged aid to the ailing southeast European
economies, many in the region remain skeptical about what help will
actually arrive.
There is a lingering bitterness in Romania and Bulgaria that losses
sustained from the Yugoslav embargo were never compensated fully. And
while Western-oriented governments supported the NATO airstrikes, both
are showing signs of frustration at the slow pace of investments and
of integration into European structures.
Last week, Bulgarian Prime Minister Ivan Kostov said at a meeting with
his Macedonian counterpart that "skepticism of the Bulgarian
government over the pact's actual implementation is growing," and that
"if there are no developments soon, skepticism will change into
disappointment."
(c) Copyright 1999. The Christian Science Publishing Society