Stratfor: China-Indonesia arms ties?

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Thu Oct 7 01:19:28 PDT 1999


2245 GMT, 991006 - Reported China-Indonesia Ties Cause Concern

Indonesia's armed forces want to explore military ties with China

possibly to procure arms and spare parts, according to an upcoming Far

Eastern Economic Review report. A close aide to Indonesian President

B.J. Habibie said the overtures to China came after the cancellation

of the Indonesian-Australian defense agreement. Whether or not the

overtures occurred, the threat of Indonesian-Chinese ties will provoke

heightened concern over Southeast Asia, possibly forcing a U.S. policy

decision.

Improving military ties is a very rational move for both Indonesia and

China. Souring relations with the West mean Jakarta is losing its arms

sources. The Australia-Indonesia defense pact and arms sales were

shattered by tension between the two nations. Likewise, the United

States suspended arms sales in September. China, however, will supply

Indonesia with weaponry, without dictating Indonesia's internal

policies.

China would also benefit by gaining an extremely important Southeast

Asian ally. China has historically had limited influence in the

region, while Indonesia has a tremendous amount. A coordinated

Chinese-Indonesian agenda could dominate the geopolitics of the South

China Sea. For example, such an alliance would have a powerful say in

regional issues such as the Spratly Islands debate.

The possibility of Chinese-Indonesian cooperation worries the West.

Australia's relations with Indonesia were spoiled by the East Timor

intervention and the "Howard Doctrine." Despite Canberra's recently

improved relations with Beijing, an alliance would do nothing to allay

Australian concerns about its northern neighbor.

As for the United States, one of its main interests in the region is

containing China. Stronger ties between Indonesia and China would not

only mean the loss of a strategic partner but it would also represent

a potential new rival for regional influence, an area historically

dominated by the United States. Indonesian-controlled shipping lanes

are one concern and it is still in the United States' best interest to

be allied with the fourth most populous nation in the world.

The United States must now reevaluate its position. So far, U.S.

policy has attempted to balance two competing interests. On the global

scale, it tried to support Western efforts like INTERFET and the

proposed U.N. human rights inquiry in East Timor without cutting

itself off from Jakarta. Internally, the foreign policy debate rages

between human rights advocates and geopolitical strategists.

The current threat makes clear that the United States can no longer

straddle the fence. An Indonesian-Chinese arrangement is a real

possibility and the United States must decide whether to abandon its

interventionist stance and attempt to woo Indonesia back or continue

to antagonize Jakarta at the cost of an adversarial relationship.

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