2245 GMT, 991006 - Reported China-Indonesia Ties Cause Concern
Indonesia's armed forces want to explore military ties with China
possibly to procure arms and spare parts, according to an upcoming Far
Eastern Economic Review report. A close aide to Indonesian President
B.J. Habibie said the overtures to China came after the cancellation
of the Indonesian-Australian defense agreement. Whether or not the
overtures occurred, the threat of Indonesian-Chinese ties will provoke
heightened concern over Southeast Asia, possibly forcing a U.S. policy
decision.
Improving military ties is a very rational move for both Indonesia and
China. Souring relations with the West mean Jakarta is losing its arms
sources. The Australia-Indonesia defense pact and arms sales were
shattered by tension between the two nations. Likewise, the United
States suspended arms sales in September. China, however, will supply
Indonesia with weaponry, without dictating Indonesia's internal
policies.
China would also benefit by gaining an extremely important Southeast
Asian ally. China has historically had limited influence in the
region, while Indonesia has a tremendous amount. A coordinated
Chinese-Indonesian agenda could dominate the geopolitics of the South
China Sea. For example, such an alliance would have a powerful say in
regional issues such as the Spratly Islands debate.
The possibility of Chinese-Indonesian cooperation worries the West.
Australia's relations with Indonesia were spoiled by the East Timor
intervention and the "Howard Doctrine." Despite Canberra's recently
improved relations with Beijing, an alliance would do nothing to allay
Australian concerns about its northern neighbor.
As for the United States, one of its main interests in the region is
containing China. Stronger ties between Indonesia and China would not
only mean the loss of a strategic partner but it would also represent
a potential new rival for regional influence, an area historically
dominated by the United States. Indonesian-controlled shipping lanes
are one concern and it is still in the United States' best interest to
be allied with the fourth most populous nation in the world.
The United States must now reevaluate its position. So far, U.S.
policy has attempted to balance two competing interests. On the global
scale, it tried to support Western efforts like INTERFET and the
proposed U.N. human rights inquiry in East Timor without cutting
itself off from Jakarta. Internally, the foreign policy debate rages
between human rights advocates and geopolitical strategists.
The current threat makes clear that the United States can no longer
straddle the fence. An Indonesian-Chinese arrangement is a real
possibility and the United States must decide whether to abandon its
interventionist stance and attempt to woo Indonesia back or continue
to antagonize Jakarta at the cost of an adversarial relationship.
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