Clinton apologizes - over Northern Ireland

[Chris Burford]

At 21:25 08/10/99 -0400, you wrote:
>[It looks like he was referring to this, delivered about 10 AM: "I 
>spent an enormous amount of time trying to help the people in the 
>land of my forbears in Northern Ireland get over 600 years of 
>religious fights. And every time they make an agreement to do it, 
>they're like a couple of drunks walking out of the bar for the last 
>time -- when they get to the swinging door they turn around and go 
>back in and say, I just can't quite there."]

Yes, very interesting. I am not sure how important it is except that for
Clinton as for Mo Mowlam the gloss has gone off the Irish Peace process.

There is now a long drawn out war of political attrition. The IRA will
adamantantly not disarm and are only prepared to consider rust as an agent
of disarmament. What they are playing for is the radical restructuring of
the armed forces of the Protestant triumphalist state. The report by the
former conservative party politician and last governor of Hong Kong, Chris
Patten, has proposed radical changes to the "Royal Irish Constabulary"
including its name. But everything lies in the detail and the vigour with
which it is implemented.

Trimble cannot get on with a power sharing government without the
acquiescence of his constituency. As I read it, the IRA will not give up
arms without the effective abolition of the RUC. Even with very generous
inducements for early retirement this may take 10 years to resolve. 

I would predict a further long period of political attrition rather than a
recommencement of the war (since the IRA know they cannot win that - they
can only stalemate the Brits), there will be some compromise. Although
Clinton's public words may have been a gaff he may well have not minded the
message of impatience getting back to the participants. This would fit with
the low profile of Mo Mowlam in the Labour Party recently (even allowing
for some friction between her and Blair about what to do.)

If the northern Irish want US inward investment they had better accommodate
to the rationality of finance capital. Meanwhile the economy of the Irish
Republic continues to expand. 

Chris Burford

London