Yes of course everyone knew that bloodshed would be the result of a pro-independence vote, the 78.5% who voted that way included i'm sure. The question as i saw it was blood for independence or indonesian control (and everything that goes with it for no bloodshed. It always seemed to me that delays went against the independence forces in favor of the militas. It would give milita time time to prepare, build up weapons, etc. As far as waiting a year or so I would see that as risking the military consolidating it's power, the fall of habibie's gov and perhaps losing the window of opportunity for the vote.
What guarantee's would there be that a vote delayed a year would take place at all? Or that the situation would be any better?
Andy
Rob Schaap wrote:
> G'day Andy,
>
> Yeah - what Ange said.
>
> I'd only add that their inaction between the morning of the vote result and
> the week of the second Liquica outrage (a month later) adds a suddenly
> significant domension to this line of thinking. The vote was done,
> Fretilin's provisional sovereignty formally validated, and murder on a
> scale we have yet to discover was done right under their inert noses
> (Falintil is organised regionally, much as the militias are, so they'd have
> been monitoring most of the outrages as they were happening).
>
> As you say; all this while - well for all of 26 years, Djakarta had been
> defending its invasion and the reason for its staying there as a stance
> against inevitable 'civil war'. And I'm guessing Falintil must have
> decided the Indonesian powers-that-be had been so successful in planting
> this spectre in the heads that mattered, that they opted for the one option
> left in a world that had so long ignored the substance of their stance and
> their plight - win a formal victory (the western eye appreciates the formal
> prettiness/rightness of a vote on the bleeding obvious) and the televised
> bloodbath that would inevitably go with it (a substance even we COULD be
> expected to appreciate - after all, we'd appreciated it in Kosovo - and
> there the picture was not half as clear as this one would undoubtedly be
> [the efforts of the NATO PR machine notwithstanding]).
>
> Be assured, Andy, everybody KNEW there'd be a bloodbath. Belo himself had
> publicly predicted it in late January (only Australia and the Indonesian
> military ever really denied it), but after that it was left to the
> integrationist militias to do all the foretelling. And when the leaders of
> thousands of armed men shout "Imi hela ho rai maibe lahia (you keep the
> land but there will be no people)" at every journalist and visiting
> dignitary, for six months, you're not left in much doubt, are you?
>
> And EVERYBODY knew that several of these very militias were formally
> directed and substantially armed by Kopassus (Gada Paksi, Besi Merah Putih,
> Halilintar [the leader of whom, Joao da Silva Tavares, is widely thought to
> have been complicit in the deaths of those Australian-based journos in
> Balibo back in '75], Tim Saka, and Rajawali were all known to be military
> offshoots since the beginning of this year).
>
> Now, it may be that my intelligence sources (*The Telegraph/Mirror* and
> *The Australian*) were not available to Falintil (and Howard/Downer), but
> if they were - then we might be forgiven for thinking things might be
> panning out much as they were intended to.
>
> Speaking of which ...
>
> Now we get this shit from Cosgrove about an intended national unity
> government WITH THESE VERY MILITIA LEADERS in it!!! I mean, I've no
> problem with passionate integrationists who want to stay in East Timor
> being in the government - they're no less citizens than anyone else. But
> these blokes!!!! I mean Itarak is still launching cross-border attacks now
> - and proudly proclaims it!
>
> The UN seems intent on ensuring that Djakarta's civil war scenario does
> come to pass (after all, they call the Cambodian civil war - again between
> members of a shared government - a 'great international success', too).
> And Gareth Evans, Alexander Downer's Labor predecessor, has been dining out
> on his auspicious role in that one for blood-soaked years.
>
> The advocates of Real Politik have pretty low standards, I reckon.
>
> Cheers,
> Rob.