Thoughts after a week selling Europe to Yanks

DANIEL.DAVIES at flemings.com DANIEL.DAVIES at flemings.com
Tue Oct 26 04:44:06 PDT 1999



>On Mon, 25 Oct 1999 DANIEL.DAVIES at flemings.com wrote:
>
>> Just come back from a week-long marketing trip, pushing a piece of
research
>> which aimed to suggest that it was time to sell the American money
centre
>> banks into the European universal banks (kind of like Dennis' stock
picks,
>> but without the inexplicable fondness for Deutsche Bank).


>Maybe it's all that southern German beer; something in the hops
>predisposes one to being assimilated by the BankBorg. On the other hand,
>they sure do own big chunks of lusciously profitable Euromultis, who have
>this weird habit of actually paying *dividends* (such things have been
>abolished here in America, along with interest rate rises and the business
>cycle). Besides, the Rolfmeister is a cool dude, right?
>
>-- Dennis

Deutsche Bank ist Frankfurten, nicht Bayerische! If it's Southern German beer and industrial ownership you crave, what's wrong with Muenchener Rueck? (NB that the dividend policies of German and US corporates are entirely a result of their respective and equally broken tax policies). Although I have to agree with you in preferring BNP Paribas to SocGen.

Rolf Breuer is a clever man, but a bloody awful banker. He has a dangerous addiction to balance sheet growth for its own sake, and he is all too keen on lecturing "Europe" on the need for "reform", or making sage pronouncements on the global financial system, rather than getting his own ragbag of investment banking businesses in order. I think of him as the German version of Michel "Capitalisme contre Capitalisme" Albert -- interesting thinker, but should never have been put in charge of anything much larger than a sausage.

I think you have a few oddities on your website by the way -- I'm absolutely positive that it's Mu-Re that owns 10% of Deutsche, not Allianz. And Bayerische Hypo-und-Vereins is definitely Allianz. (I'm in the process of writing something on the insurance companies of Europe, who really are puppet masters over the banks).

Not wanting to appear to be slagging Dennis' stock tips, or anything, but I'd warn that Deutsche Bank's industrial ownership comes with a tasty dose of exposure to the New York real estate market, through its ownership of Bankers' Trust. And at this very moment, Donald Trump is driving piles for a new 90 storey luxury apartment block. I'm reminded of the old bankers' proverb: "Any time that Donald Trump is able to borrow any money whatsoever, to build anything whatsoever, is a time when money is too loose."

Fancy a job, DR? We need someone to do Benelux.

dd

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