Financial Times - September 4, 1999
UN warns of power crisis in Serbia By Guy Dinmore in London
Serbia faces a humanitarian crisis this winter through shortages of electricity and heating, according to a UN report that criticises western governments for denying help to repair the Nato-damaged power industry.
Electricity supply is likely to fall 30-50 per cent below minimum needs and much of the system could collapse completely, warns the United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
The report will add urgency to a debate within the European Union and the US over how much aid to give to Serbia as long as Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic remains in office. Present policy is to provide "humanitarian" assistance, but not to the power industry.
The EU also maintains a ban on oil exports to Serbia imposed during the 11-week Nato air campaign.
The UN agency asks what the point is of giving food and medicine if the young, old and sick are freezing to death.
Serbia's energy crisis will deepen if it cannot pay debts to Russia for gas imports, believed to total over $200m, and transit fees to Hungary of about $20m.
No gas has flowed to Serbia for months and Belgrade is holding urgent talks with both sides.
David Shearer, author of the report, predicts severe hardship and increased mortality, especially among the most vulnerable.
"Pensioners living in a 10th-floor apartment in minus 10 for a few days will have slim chances. The death rate will go up," he told the Financial Times.
High-explosive Nato bombs caused severe damage to Serbia's transformers and transmission equipment that the UN estimates will cost $270m to fix. Oil refineries and fuel dumps were also hit.
Electricity production, already in decline during a decade of economic neglect, will also fall because open-cast coal mines could not operate normally over the summer.
Supplies of coal to Serbia from Kosovo, now under UN administration, have also stopped.
Some 52 per cent of homes in Serbia rely on electricity for heating, while 22 per cent are supplied by district central heating plants running on gas. Rural households get by on coal and wood stoves and many city residents are already preparing to move to the countryside.
While Britain and the US insist on a narrow definition of "humanitarian assistance", the Netherlands and Greece are launching a "fuel for democracy" initiative that would keep municipalities under opposition control warm through the winter. Under the proposal heating oil would be supplied but there are serious differences over helping fix the entire electricity grid.
Serb opposition leaders meeting in London yesterday urged the west to avert disaster this winter.
"The international community should help the Serbs but not Milosevic," urged Zoran Zivkovic, deputy president of the Democratic party and mayor of Nis, Serbia's second biggest city. He said James Rubin, US State Department spokesman, had indicated that Washington would agree to supply heating oil.
The issue is expected to come up at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Finland this weekend.