i'll take a wager on something in a fortnight. US and aust troops are about to conduct the biggest training exercises here than they've ever done up north. and i suspect a combination of countries is being pulled together as i type to go in under UN auspices. the indonesian army is highly factionalised, a feature of the deterioration of the indonesian economy resulting in increasingly desperate bids by military/owners to hang on to the coffee plantations in the southern end of East Timor (perhaps through partition, which whilst ruled out by the UN might well be what happens on the ground). the question then might then be one of the relative strength of different indonesian military factions -- habibe has just ordered another two platoons in for i suspect this reason. part of the other issue re welling up popular support here for an intervention, of course, is whether or not the militia shoot an australian. richard carleton could have remained in dili :-)
Angela _________