Neue Mitte in the doghouse

[Johannes Schneider]

Doug quoted:
> Financial Times - September 6, 1999
>
> Schröder's party suffers state election losses
> By Ralph Atkins in Berlin
>
> Gerhard Schröder, German chancellor, was dealt a severe blow last
> night after sharp losses in state elections in Brandenburg and
> Saarland reduced further his administration's influence over the
> Bundesrat, or second chamber of parliament.
More or less those losses have been expected.
> The poor results - which, according to exit polls and first results,
> would also see the extreme rightwing Deutsche Volksunion entering the
> Brandenburg state parliament for the first time - could hamper Mr
> Schröder's ability to push through planned financial reforms.
To put it clearly: The Deutsche Volksunion (DVU) is openly fascist. It
remains to be seen whether they will be able to gain anything from their
election victory. Previously all their factions inside state parliament fell
apart.
> The chancellor will now have to rely on winning support in the
> Bundesrat, which represents the Länder, or states, from the main,
> centre-right opposition parties.
But this does not mean Schröder is neccessarily in a weaker position. The
red-green government already lost its majority in Bundesrat in February, so
Schröder was expected to come to some deal with the conservatives before.
Now he just has to manoveur around just a little bit more. If he is clever
he can present himself as the just broker in the center using the
conservatives to hold in check the SPD left-wing.
> In Saarland, the relatively modest loss compared with Brandenburg
> offered little comfort for Mr Schröder: Reinhard Klimmt, Saarland's
> prime minister, was close to Oscar Lafontaine, Mr Schröder's leftwing
> ex-finance minister, who resigned earlier this year. Mr Klimmt had
> persistently criticised the chancellor - particularly his plans to
> link state pensions to prices rather than wages for the next two
> years.
I think the lesser SPD losses in Saarland can be attributed to Klimmts
criticsim of Schröders pension plans. Generally all the parties electoral
base in the East is much more fragile than in the West. This leads to wider
swings at voting day.
> The results - the first two of four state elections this month -
> follow a wretched summer of internal wrangling within the SPD over Mr
> Schröder's plans to cut federal spending by DM30bn (£10bn) next year.
> Despite taking over the party chairmanship himself, Mr Schröder has
> failed to stem resistance from within SPD ranks to his "modernising"
> politics developed partly in conjunction with Tony Blair, the prime
> minister.
The problem of the opposition inside the SPD is that they dont present any
alternative to Schröder and his politics. After Lafontaine run away they
dont have anyone to rally around. Programmatically they are even more
weaker. So they just criticise isolated points of Schröders policies in the
name of justice.
The FT report did not mention another important aspect of the election
results: the liberal FDP and the Greens. Both failed to win any seats. If
this trend continues in the future elections the FDP will be dead. In recent
years the FDP relied heavily on beeing in government to get the necessary
money from big business. Now out of government and parliament they are of no
more use. This puts the conservative CDU/CSU in a difficult position,
because it means they have to win a majority on their own. That is something
almost impossible on a federal level.
What the FDP was for Kohl the Greens are for Schröder. Their electoral
support is going down but generally their core constituency is more stable
than the FDPs. If they can take over some of the former FDP voters and more
important get a share of the FDPs big business support, Schröders future
will not be so dark as it is looking today.
Johannes
Here are two links for detailed results:
Saarland:
http://www.statistik.saarland.de/wahlen/wahlen99/lawa99.htm
Brandenburg:
http://www.brandenburg.de/land/wahlen/wahlen/landtag/index.htm