I see the point that the failure of the FDP to pick up any protest votes (getting only 2.6% in Saarland and 1.9% in Brandenburg) must look ominous for its survival and could weaken the CDU in terms of future coalition partners.
But if the Greens have also suffered in coalition with the SPD, and the left opposition to Schroeder has nowhere to go (until Lafontaine publishes his book?) the PDS looks more resilient in the east.
Despite Zizek's criticisms of the PDS's oppositon to NATO's war this appears to have done it no harm. Although it does not appear to have contested the election in Saarland, in Brandenburg, around Berlin in the East, its vote went up 4.6% to 23.3%. What is really significant is that the local SPD after losing its overall majority and announcing it would be ready for a coalition, made clear that could be either with the PDS or the CDU.
As far as I could pick up the CDU was muted in its warnings about the SPD choosing the PDS, whereas last year they attacked the SPD for deciding to govern Mecklenburg-Vorpommern to the north of Berlin with the support of the PDS. Opinion polls show that in Brandenburg a coalition by the SPD with the CDU (as in Berlin) would be somewhat more popular than one with the PDS, including for SPD voters, the difference is not overwhelming. It looks as if the SPD in a somewhat weaker position has deliberately decided to keep the option open of negotiating with the PDS. The anti-communism seems to have abated.
There are further elections coming up in which the PDS may also be reasonably confident of improving its position.
Lothar Bisky, its president, seemed relaxed on television tonight about the prospects of a coalition in Brandenburg. If it stays outside and there is an SPD-CDU coalition, it is likely to benefit from protest votes. If it has its first coalition with the SPD it could start having more of a pull on the left of the SPD and pick up votes at the next election as a surer alternative to the CDU.
I would have thought in the east the SPD is likely to get squeezed somewhat between the PDS and the CDU.
Incidentally I caught that the fascist DVU has as its main slogan 'German money for German people'. This thoroughly reactionary slogan is against the interests of German capitalism which needs a large economy with a cheap foreign workforce, and substantial investment in developing the market in Poland and eastern Europe. The fact that they have chosen as their leader in Brandenburg a photogenic youngish woman suggests they are caught between playing conventional electoral politics and thuggish fascist politics. Hopefully with the increase in the CDU vote, that party will not think it has to make many concessions to the politics of the DVU. The worst case scenario is that the DVU grows like their counterparts in Austria.
The PDS were prominently displaying posters against the fascists at their news conference this evening.
Chris Burford
London