>> well i have to say i'm shocked. angela, rob... what do you make of
>it? does it matter? has kennett fallen?<
>
>i'm inclined to think so. i doubt whether either of the two
>independants will vote with kennett, but independants can always be
>flattered by being appointed speaker (hence removing their vote).
i just don't think she could be bought by that now not after a whole season as the butt of personalised kennett scorn over 'independent politicians'
>but a
>bit of a way to go until it all settles down: another by-election in a
>month or so and two seats still being counted. in any event, kennett's
>hide may well be the price of any deal b/n the Lib-Nats and whomever
>inds.
maybe, but he won't go before the by-election too much riding on him as 'leader'
>i think the most interesting thing about it all is the extent to which
>the ALP and leftoid independants in victoria became the repository of
>the sentiment of Lib-Nat betrayal (anti-privatisation, etc), as
>distinct from One Nation in other parts of australia.
that's timing as well. a lot has happened to One Nation since their period of greatest success. it's partly also about the difference in Aboriginal populations at least tht's true comparing NIC and NSW.
>the residual
>agrarian socialism in victoria never really took the form of a racist
>and xenophobic politics as it did say in queensland, and that might have
>much to do with the large southern european rural belt of mildura, as
>well as the 'market garden' (asian and southern european) presence in
>the rural economy here (compared to the plantation and pastoral
>economies to the north and west).
yes but one of the reasons for this is the area covered by rural populations. reduction of services to country NSW and QLD has a different tenor than in VIC where everythign is smaller and closer together. i'm not saying this is not to do with political histories as well, because it certainly is, and rural NSW-QLD has always been such a stronghold for the Country Party/Nationals. but i don't think you can quickly associate this with racist and xenophobic inclinations in those other states which are not present in VIC. this matters to me and i wouldn't want to be hasty but there's a very different quality to the rural-city opposition in VIC than in NSW. partly because of area covered and thus the difference in distribution of population. I don't think the urban-rural opposition in VIC is nearly as strong, because the differences between urban and regional VIC just aren't as great.
>(the other thing to recall here is
>that when the martime strike was on, a group of victorian farmers gave
>food to the strikers, quite against the position of the National
>Farmers' Federation, which had long campaigned for the de-unionisation
>of the wharves and had provided much of the 'talent' for plotting the
>govt strategy.)
but in NSW there has been considerable strength in 'rural' unions and some rural areas were also very supportive of those strikes, as is evident in crossover regions like the Hunter Valley
>the other thing to note about vic is the extent to which the election
>took place in the midst of the largest mobilisation on east timor in
>aust, and these led pretty much by the leftwing unions. so, the
>reith-ist anti-union spluttering seems to have well and truly had its
>day here.
for the time being and yes i think that was relevant in some way. certainly (having spent some time in airports around the anti-garuda protests) there was a pro-union feeling i havent' encountered in a while
>...and it's equally clear
>that the ALP will not reverse the privatisations or differ significantly
>on economic policy.
absolutely. the previous labor govt gave them a real comfort zone on privatisation. i guess my hope is this election might dent some of that for both the coalition and labor.
>i'd keep a close eye on the changes happening in the ACTU (thank god
>kelty eventually pissed off, but after 13 years of damage)
his legacy isn't leaving any time soon
>and the NFF
>over the next year or so. and whether or not this forces a shift in the
>politics of the ALP and Nats. the Democrats are unlikely to survive
>another election, wot without the threat of ON, they would never have
>been the beneficiaries of Lib, Nat and ALP preferences, hence their
>overblown position in the senate.
appalled by the Nationals' take on this. almost victorious. talking up the renegotiation of the coalition and so on. such hypocrisy. they are so, wrong, i want to say evil, i would vote liberal twice before i'd vote national, they are so disturbing and the thing about National voters voting One Nation was never much more than a chance to make their vote seen over the heads of the Liberal party -- not really a change of position at all. but the failure of the ALP in regional Australia is going to take a lot of overcoming. something may have turned around in this election, and it will be fascinating to see how it unfolds. but bracks talking up his country boy past. fuck.
>and i see that the Progressive Labour Party got 8% of primaries in
>Northcote and Militant got 16% (?) in Richmond. whatever the various
>pundits thought of the symbolic appeal of JEFF, on the ground, Vic is
>stumbling leftwards.
it would be nice to think so. let's see how the by-election pans out. it may not be the best seat for a test of what a direct choice means to victorians, but the campaign will be interesting.
catherine