> well i have to say i'm shocked. angela, rob... what do you make of
it? does it matter? has kennett fallen?<
i'm inclined to think so. i doubt whether either of the two independants will vote with kennett, but independants can always be flattered by being appointed speaker (hence removing their vote). but a bit of a way to go until it all settles down: another by-election in a month or so and two seats still being counted. in any event, kennett's hide may well be the price of any deal b/n the Lib-Nats and whomever inds.
i think the most interesting thing about it all is the extent to which the ALP and leftoid independants in victoria became the repository of the sentiment of Lib-Nat betrayal (anti-privatisation, etc), as distinct from One Nation in other parts of australia. the residual agrarian socialism in victoria never really took the form of a racist and xenophobic politics as it did say in queensland, and that might have much to do with the large southern european rural belt of mildura, as well as the 'market garden' (asian and southern european) presence in the rural economy here (compared to the plantation and pastoral economies to the north and west). (the other thing to recall here is that when the martime strike was on, a group of victorian farmers gave food to the strikers, quite against the position of the National Farmers' Federation, which had long campaigned for the de-unionisation of the wharves and had provided much of the 'talent' for plotting the govt strategy.)
the other thing to note about vic is the extent to which the election took place in the midst of the largest mobilisation on east timor in aust, and these led pretty much by the leftwing unions. so, the reith-ist anti-union spluttering seems to have well and truly had its day here.
> what if anything does it mean for howard? just that victoria was sick
of jeff and nothing more? (lovely to see peter reith shifting
uncomfortably in his chair) from outside it seemed to run mostly on
privatisation, and it would be nice to think the other govts (including
this one in SA) would run a little
scared from that in the near future.<
i think we need to remember that the Lib-Nats did not win by a majority of votes but by gerrymander, and they still did not have a majority in the senate. they were a dead duck until the rightward bolting Democrats gave them a new lease of life, on reconciliation, on reith's anti-union laws, on the gst... but in any event, what's clear is that the Lib-Nats will not win another federal election. and it's equally clear that the ALP will not reverse the privatisations or differ significantly on economic policy.
i'd keep a close eye on the changes happening in the ACTU (thank god kelty eventually pissed off, but after 13 years of damage) and the NFF over the next year or so. and whether or not this forces a shift in the politics of the ALP and Nats. the Democrats are unlikely to survive another election, wot without the threat of ON, they would never have been the beneficiaries of Lib, Nat and ALP preferences, hence their overblown position in the senate.
and i see that the Progressive Labour Party got 8% of primaries in Northcote and Militant got 16% (?) in Richmond. whatever the various pundits thought of the symbolic appeal of JEFF, on the ground, Vic is stumbling leftwards.
Angela _________