> I read an article last year where two economists developed a model
> predicting that a disproportionate fraction of groundbreaking
> academic papers should be wrong. Basically, they assumed that
> since funding stems from status, and status stems from writing
> ground breaking papers, there's an incentive to draw flashy,
> counterintuitive conclusions rather than confirming prior work.
...
> I think it was published in either 1998 or 1999. I saw a reference
> to it in the New York Times, which referenced an issue of _Science_
> magazine. _Science_ just had a blurb pointing to a journal article,
> and there my memory ends.
does anyone know this paper and have a reference to it?
many thanks
les schaffer