Cuba all set for another bumper sugarcane crop

Michael Hoover hoov at freenet.tlh.fl.us
Thu Apr 27 14:24:13 PDT 2000



> I sure don't know "what gives." How is the international market for sugar?
> Is there sufficient demand, or would higher production just depress prices?
> If there is a production problem in Cuba, maybe it is related to
> breakdowns in the harvesting machinery, maybe lack of petro.
> -Andy English
>
> >>As I recall there was a time (around 1970 I think) when the Cuban
> >>governmen wrecked the
> >>economy mobilizing the entire workforce to try to harvest 10 million tons.
> >>Afterward, they
> >>criticized themselves and moved to a more balanced economic strategy.
> >>-Andy English
> >
> >But in the 1960s they *routinely* harvested 6 million tons. We today
> >have better selectively-bred cane stalks, better fertilizers, more
> >labor-saving machinery, Cuba has the same land as then...
> >What gives?
> >Brad DeLong

Sugar harvests were falling below 6M tons in late 1960s which made improbability of 10M tons in 1970 even less likely. All-time record at that time was about 7M tons. 1970 harvest of 8.5M tons remains unsurpassed but it was achieved at expense of general economic well- being (involving mobilization that exceeded health and illiteracy efforts combined). Acknowledged as failure by gov't and subject of self-criticism by Castro, 1970 'zafra' campaign marked end of revolutionary Cuba's 'heroic' period. Idealism, improvisation, experimentation were replaced by instutionalization, structured decisionmaking, rational economic management.

Sugar harvests from early 1970s to early 1990s were in 7M to 8M ton range (7M in 1992-93). But collapse of Soviet Union & Eastern European socialist bloc meant vastly reduced markets (in which Soviets paid higher than world market price) and financing. SU & EE provided 40% of Cuba's trade & aid and their absence left country with no money to buy machinery parts, fertilizers, herbicides for long-time leading source of foreign exchange (now replaced by tourism). Cubans are again cutting cane largely by hand.

Low point was 1995 when harvest was about 3M tons. More recent years have been hampered by effects of Hurricane Lili & El Nino (torrential rains cause yields to plummet). Competition from Ukranian sugar production has limited expansion of European markets. And world market prices have been low for some time.

Michael Hoover (who may be thought a suspect source on such matters and so listers may want to ignore above comments in favor of tried-and-true explanations holding that problems stem from innate inefficiency of centralized bureaucratic planning and agricultural policies of large state farms *and/or* Castro as caudillo)



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