Laying Bets: W Will Win

Michael Pugliese debsian at pacbell.net
Tue Aug 15 10:43:36 PDT 2000


On the electoral college, the maps I've seen, including one I saw yesterday (in Human Events, granted, hardly an objective source, wish I could afford the Hotline from the National Journal) show a GOP sweep through the South except Tenesssee, most of the rustbelt, the West, except California. Only in the Northeast, by these projections, does Gore have a chance.

A telling detail in the NYT this morning- only 51% of the delegates to the Demo convention thought Gore was sure to win. When your cadre thinks and feels you are a turkey, watch out.

Michael Pugliese http://www.politics.com/polls/polls_frame.htm LATEST TRIAL HEATS [Details] BUSH GORE NADER BUCHANAN BUSH LEAD over Gore

LOS ANGELES TIMES ^ 8/13 52 40 2 1 12 REUTERS/ZOGBY ^ 8/13 43 40 7 2 3 CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP 8/12 55 39 2 0 16 NBC/WALL ST. JOURNAL * ^ 8/11 44 41 5 2 3 NEWSWEEK * 8/11 48 38 3 3 10 CNN/TIME 8/10 53 39 4 2 14 ABC/WASHINGTON POST ^ 8/10 50 42 5 2 8 DEMOCRACY CORPS (D) ^ 8/10 48 39 6 3 9 FOX/OPINION DYNAMICS 8/10 46 40 5 1 6 U. OF CONNECTICUT * ^ 8/9 43 38 4 0 5 CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP * 8/7 45 43 4 1 2 CBS * ^ 8/6 50 34 5 1 16 REUTERS/ZOGBY ^ 8/6 49 32 6 1 17 NEWSWEEK * ^ 8/4 49 38 5 1 11 NBC * ^ 8/3 47 36 6 1 11

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Surveys of likely voters, except where noted. Questions include running mates, except where noted. Date shown is last day of interviewing. * Registered voters. ^ Excludes running mates.



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