Laying Bets: W Will Win

Michael Hoover hoov at
Fri Aug 25 12:42:54 PDT 2000

> Me, I'm an electoral market fundamentalist -- great
> economy, popular predecessor, Gore should win. It doesn't always happen,
> but it's always the way to bet. Froth in the early running
> notwithstanding.
> __________________________________________________________________________
> Michael Pollak................New York City..............mpollak at

And for those who like their stuff quantifiable, poli sci guy Ed Tufte (who has since become something of an "information design" guru) offered numbers supporting above: since WW2, when economy is "doing well," incumbent party does well. Tufte's _Political Control of the Economy_ - positing "economic- electoral cycle" in which approaching election, for various reasons, induces "artificial" economic growth obtained via government economic policy instruments - runs through 1976 but others have continued up-dates through 1996.

Morris Fiorina and some other poli sci guys cite above as most-often important factor in "retrospective voting" (Fiorina, _Retrospective Voting in American Natioonal Elections_). Michael Hoover

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