Argentina's $40b rescue

Daniel Davies d_squared_2002 at yahoo.co.uk
Tue Dec 19 08:08:11 PST 2000


hrrrrrm .... selective subtext is a useful tool of analysis here.


> [from the World Bank's daily clipping service]
>
> $39.7 BILLION .... [snip]...$39.7 billion ...
>[snip] .... [snip] .... $13.7 billion ... [snip]
>.... [snip] ....$20 billion ... [snip] ... $3.5
>billion .... [snip] ....just under $3 billion ...
>[snip] ... $2 billion .... [snip] .... $2.5 billion
>.... [snip].... $1.5 billion.

basically, this is the most ludicrous piece of window-dressing I've ever seen. Of the $40bn, $20bn is meant to come from the local banking system (useless - if they're in trouble, they can't cough up; if they can pay up, they're not in trouble), and from "nonbinding commitments" by overseas banks to roll over debt.

Of the remaining $20bn, $2.5bn comes from the World Bank, of which only $900mn is new money (the rest has been double counted). Then you get US$1bn from Spain (pretty pukka) $2.5bn from the IADB (not imediately available) and a bunch from random bilateral facilities. The bulk of the real money is US$13.7bn from the IMF.

Of the IMF money, US$7bn is bond swaps (swapping short-dated government bonds for longer-dated), which may or may not be conditional on bond market conditions. And the new facility replaces an existing US$7.2bn facility.

The IMF has certainly coughed up something, and I remain of the opinion that Argentina is too much of a favoured pupil to be allowed to fail, but they are running a risk of destroying their credibility if they keep on pushing these inflated headline figures.

===== “It is necessarily part of the business of a banker to maintain appearances and to profess a conventional respectability which is more than human. Life-long practices of this kind make them the most romantic and the least realistic of men” -- JM Keynes

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