[John Judis, the presidential election and Salon -- what could be more boring? But forced to read this by a friend, I found there were some interesting snippets.]
http://www.salon.com/politics2000/feature/2000/02/03/gop/index.html
Burning Bush
Can John McCain possibly defeat the GOP's anointed candidate?
By John B. Judis
Feb. 3, 2000 | WASHINGTON -- The real winner in New Hampshire Tuesday
was Vice President Al Gore. He is going to have to battle former Sen.
Bill Bradley through the March 14 Super Tuesday primaries, but he
should be able to wrap up the nomination by then without having
seriously damaged himself politically. If Bradley couldn't win a
non-union, all-white Northeastern state where independents can vote,
he is going to have an impossible time in Southern states and in
Northern states where union members and pro-Clinton minorities make up
almost half of the primary electorate. So it's goodbye, Bradley.
And what about Gore's presumed opponent, Texas Gov. George W. Bush?
Bush wanted to use some of his $70 million in campaign funds to start
running general election ads in February. He wanted to be able to
forget about Confederate flags, fetal tissue research and all the
other bizarre obsessions of the Republican right, but after getting
routed in New Hampshire, Bush will have to face Arizona Sen. John
McCain and possibly also Steve Forbes and Alan Keyes through February
and perhaps well into March. He should still win the nomination, but
he will pay a price for victory.
<snip>
But can McCain win the nomination over Bush? McCain knows he cannot
win a long war of attrition with Bush, so he hopes that by winning a
string of primaries in New Hampshire and then South Carolina, Arizona
and Michigan, and then embarrassing Bush in California on March 7, he
can force Bush to withdraw from the race. It's a strategy that depends
on political trauma. The trouble with this strategy, however, is that
Bush would have to withdraw in favor of McCain, and McCain is widely
disliked among Republican politicians and officials because of his
unstinting support for campaign-finance reform. If Bush were to suffer
a string of defeats, his backers would continue to insist that he stay
in the race, even if that meant fielding a weak candidate in the fall.
If Bush can stay on his feet past March 7, it is likely that he will
gain the nomination. He has already raised about five times more money
than McCain and will have an edge campaigning in states where most
voters only get to see the candidates on television. He also has an
enormous advantage in organization. All 31 Republican governors,
including the governor of Arizona, back Bush, and have put their
organizations at his disposal. (One of his disadvantages in Iowa and
New Hampshire was that these states have Democratic governors.)
Money and organization are probably more important in the Republican
than the Democratic race, because many of the largest Republican
primaries are decided on a winner-take-all basis. On March 14, Bush is
almost certain to win a total of 204 delegates in Texas and in
Florida, where brother Jeb is the governor. That figure alone is 19
percent of the total Bush needs to win. If McCain loses California the
week before, the race is virtually over.
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