> Tough economic times over for Cuba, key official says
>
> By ANDREW CAWTHORNE, Reuters
> Web-posted: 11:13 a.m. Feb. 15, 2000
>
> HAVANA -- After six consecutive years of growth, the toughest times
> are over for communist-ruled Cuba in a decade-long economic crisis
> provoked by the Soviet collapse and exacerbated by ongoing U.S.
> sanctions, a key Cuban official said.
>
> Central Bank President Francisco Soberon also reiterated
> Havana's confidence in its much-criticized socialist economic model,
> arguing that its efficacy had been proven by Cuba's social
> achievements and resistance to recent global financial crises.
>
> "We have been reassured by what has happened in the world that
> we should go on like this. It has been black and white, very clear to
> us," he told Reuters in an interview late Monday.
>
> Despite the economic recovery, including a 6.2 percent gross
> domestic product (GDP) rise in 1999, Havana is acting not unduly
> triumphant, nor soon planning to lift its "Special Period," the state's
> euphemism for the recession after the Soviet breakup.
>
> Plenty of economic problems remained to be solved, said
> Soberon, one of President Fidel Castro's top economic planners.
>
> "We have been feeling now for some years that the worst is
> behind, but we are realistic and know we have still difficult times
> ahead," Soberon said. "Although at present we are growing in all
> areas of the economy, there are specific problems that require a lot
> of attention and effort."
>
> Havana perceives its No. 1 problem to be the U.S. economic
> embargo, or "blockade" as Cuba calls it, in place since 1962 in a
> failed attempt to oust Castro from power.
>
> Cuba says the sanctions have cost it $60 billion over the years,
> and continue to strangle the economy by denying it access to its
> natural trading partner, blocking international credit lines, and
> pressuring other countries dealing with Cuba.
>
> "To have the United States trying to destroy you creates real
> problems," Soberon said.
>
> Cuba's $11 billion foreign debt was another big obstacle, he
> added, although there was ongoing contact with the Paris Club of
> creditors and a recent, $125 million debt restructuring deal with
> Havana's biggest creditor, Japan.
>
> Within the Cuban economy, it was not easy to handle the pros
> and cons of relatively new measures such as the partial dollarization
> of the economy, making government businesses more efficient, and
> consolidating a package of liberalizing reforms adopted in the
> mid-1990s, Soberon added.
>
> "We have still enough problems not to be euphoric or have
> fantasies about our economy. But we feel the situation is under
> control, we are doing what we have to do," he said.
>
> Cuba's economy has grown each year since 1994 after a dramatic
> 35 percent plunge between 1989 and 1993 due to the shock cutting
> of trade and aid ties with the former Soviet bloc.
>
> Last year's 6.2 percent GDP rise was one of the highest in Latin
> America, and the official forecast for 2000 is a rise of 4.0 to 4.5
> percent.
>
> "There is no reason why we should not attain around that figure,"
> Soberon said, adding that it could well be higher.
>
> The central bank chief highlighted oil and electricity as likely
> boom sectors for 2000, with a projected 31 percent rise in oil output
> to 2.8 million tons likely to help Cuba fulfill 70 percent of electricity
> needs locally.
>
> Tourism would continue to lead the Cuban economy this year,
> although perhaps at a slower rate, and production of the Caribbean
> island's main exports -- sugar, nickel and tobacco -- was all on the
> rise. Although falling sugar prices left that traditional sector in a
> "delicate balance," that would be offset in the coffers by rising nickel
> prices, Soberon said.
>
> "That is one of our main successes, I feel -- that we have
> diversified the economy," he added.
>
> Despite the more optimistic panorama, it was still not time to
> celebrate, he said.
>
> "We need to feel that the recovery now is absolutely in place, that
> everything goes OK, before we can say we are out of the 'Special
> Period.' ... It will have to be a consensus," Soberon said, stressing
> that the lifting of the term was in any case more of a philosophical
> matter.
>
> Most importantly, however, the world was coming around to
> Cuba's long-held belief that its "human capital" was as important -- if
> not more important -- than its financial wealth, he said.
>
> "If someone wants to lend you $2 billion, they can push a button
> of a computer, and the $2 billion will be here. If someone wants to
> have 700,000 professionals, it will take them 40 years," he said,
> referring to the professional sector on an island of 11 million people.