nationalism

Wojtek Sokolowski sokol at jhu.edu
Wed Feb 16 10:22:23 PST 2000


Enclosed is a Stratfor's analysis of Eastern Eurpean nationalism which I think touches an interesting point that virulent nationalism is a response to globalization (or at least its overt form).

In Eastern Europe, it was a response first to globalziation under the Pax Sovietica, and now to globalization under the banner of integration to the EU. The growth of right wing nationalism in Western Europe has pretty much the same roots, reaction to globalization and corporate pulp culture (Mcdonaldization & Hollywoodization of Europe).

I might add that the emergence of Islamic fascism in the Middle East has also similar roots, a reaction to Western political and cultural influences.

If that analysis is correct, Middle East and Austria might be harbingers of things to come - re-emergence of nationalistic right in Europe and the US.

Any comments?

wojtek

STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update 16 February 2000

EU Faces Nationalism in the East

Summary

British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook warned Austria Feb. 14 that anti-foreigner and anti-European Union (EU) nationalist sentiment had no place in a modern Europe. He added that it was especially important for the union take a tough line against Austria in the name of Central and Eastern European states hoping to join the EU. His statement is ironic given that Austrian nationalism pales in comparison to nationalist sentiment further east. In fact, only a few days earlier, the far-right party in EU-candidate Hungary announced its intention to join in the government with a ruling coalition party. Cook's statement is as much a warning to European nationalists, as it is an affirmation that Europe has only begun to deal with nationalism in EU expansion. This is especially important since expansion has become just as much about economic security as about a buffer against a resurgent Russia.

Analysis

British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook, speaking about Austria in advance of a European Union (EU) accession meeting Feb. 14, warned against the spread of nationalist sentiment in Europe, adding that such moves were not conducive to European enlargement. His comments came one day ahead of membership talks with Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia.

Cook's statement, however, ignores the fact that Central Eastern European countries are already far more deeply nationalistic than Austria could ever be. One example is Hungary, whose far-right Hungarian Justice and Life Party (MIEP) announced plans Feb. 10 to join forces with one of the ruling coalition's parties. Cook's statement was more of a warning to the EU concerning the weakness of its position on Austrian nationalism. That position could actually undermine attempts to lessen a nationalist backlash in already highly nationalistic candidate states.

Central and Eastern Europe developed their own nationalism as a direct response to Russian communist domination. The Soviet Union suppressed nationalism - with violent commonality - as a matter of necessity. When Czechs and Estonians sought to express themselves as Czechs and Estonians, instead of comrade-citizens of the Soviet socialist world, Moscow saw this as a direct challenge to its rule. Ironically, the only rejoinder to continued Russian suppression was increased nationalism. There are parallels between the Soviet Union and the EU, as Europe becomes more "European" and less French, Greek or Italian.

Therefore, nationalist sentiment in Eastern Europe will naturally increase as these candidates consider joining yet another European union of states. In Hungary, in particular, 65 to 70 percent of Hungarians still support EU membership, according to the head of the Hungarian negotiating team to the EU, Peter Gottfried. However, despite the fact that the government officially condemned the Freedom Party's rise to power in Austria, public opinion polls have shown most Hungarians are becoming more supportive of Austria's nationalistic rebellion and more critical of the EU. Despite Hungary's close historical, political and economic ties with Austria; the focus on Hungarian nationalism only came to the foreground after Austrian nationalism became news.

A further irony of the European position on Austria is that Austria is only the most vocal of the nationalists. Nationalist sentiment, already simmering in many of the existing European states, is expected to intensify. In this way, Europe is teetering on the edge. One of the only ways for the union to counter this nationalist sentiment is to impose more federal types of constitutional reform. However, the paradox in that situation is clear, that is, moves toward federalization will only cause existing and potential members to react by becoming more nationalistic.

Europe is at a critical decision point. European expansion is no longer solely designed to bolster Central and Eastern Europe's economy. Instead, the purpose of expansion has changed to include securing its eastern border before Russia can regroup and begin to assert more influence in its former republics and Warsaw Pact partners. In order to expand, however, the union must adopt more federalist policies without enhancing nationalist reaction from existing members and alienating already deeply nationalistic candidates. It all boils down to the EU weighing the need to quell nationalist sentiment against its security needs. Based on the EU's strong condemnation of Austria's Haider, Europe's ability to effectively bring Eastern Europe into the fold does not look promising.

(c) 2000, WNI Inc.

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