Here's where I agree with the article: antiHaider pronouncements from the UK (and the US) have everything to do with a split over the expansion of the EU, and certainly nothing to do with declaring "nationalist sentiment" out of bounds.
But Stratfor peddles its own kind of line, especially when it comes to fantasising about Warsaw Pact regroupment. So, instead of Stratfor opting for a comparison of Austrian nationalism with others inside the EU, they focus on the apparently greater threat coming from eastern and central Europe.
Some recent examples of why this kind of approach parallels that of Cook's -- that is, how each, both Stratfor and Cook get to pick and choose 'the greater nationalist threat' in order to lend credence to a geopolitical position, the former for EU and NATO expansion, the latter presumably against it -- whilst blithely ignoring instances in the last month which don't fit their story.
1. Since last year, there have been a number of attacks against migrants in Spain, The latest and the worst this month. From Reuters: "Anti-immigrant demonstrators wrecked shops and cars belonging to people of North African origin in protest against a killing blamed on a Moroccan, authorities said on Sunday. Hundreds of residents marched through the centre of El Ejido, shouting "Moors, go home!", while others set up barricades of burning tires on a major road leading into town. Racial tension returned to the farming town later on sunday, forcing police to step in to avert violence. Moroccan demonstrators marched in protest of the property damage, which in turn draw another angry reaction from native Spanish."
This follows a concerted, if not always explicit, campaign from all the major parties in Spain to blame immigrants for crime.
2. In Denmark, the Danish People's Party has made significant gains on a platform of anti-immigration. I've no further details on this.
3. In Sweden, "the Prime Minister Goran Persson was quoted on Sunday in an interview as saying the government had allowed in too many immigrants on occasion in the past and immigration policies had been badly handled. 'It's clear that at certain times we had too much immigration and large parts of our immigration policies were badly handled,' he said in the interview in the daily Expressen." (also from Reuters) This is his response to a series of attacks against migrants in Sweden, and just like Kohl did after Rostock, Persson intends to make the very presence of migrants (or 'unassimilated' migrants) responsible for such violence.
Contrary to Stratfor, the "security needs" which drive EU expansion have much more to do with the development of the EU's border policies, both internal and external.
Check out: http://www.united.non-profit.nl/licencetokill.html
Angela