Well I might have misread your intent, and sorry if so. It depends on what you mean and imply by saying "without the CCP's repressive management, China will probably be "Russia." If one were to suggest that the strong and repressive state is what has "saved" the PRC from falling to pieces, this would be wrong. It has been what has created the conditions of possibility of becoming another "russia" (with or without a CP in place). It is also highly tendentious to suggest a relaxation of its grip would likely mean implosion or the end of its rule, this is the paranoid view reflected in much media coverage, and to be sure believed by some--hence the absurd crackdown on the absurd Falun Gong/Dafa.
I think we agree on the main issues-- the character of the current CCP, and the global if not imperialist pressures and limits placed upon the PRC (not least by themselves), and the likely (horrible) outcome were the CP/state to "wither" away _suddenly_. But, moreover, we would *not* use this as an argument to legitimate or justify its _unnecessarily_ harsh rule right now, let alone to point to it as a necessary (albeit tragic, etc) path to development under those "special conditions." (Or do we disagree on this -- I should hope not.)
At any rate, the CP and the state are not going away (unless the catastrophic version of crisis theory becomes accurate for once, thanks to WTO and further "opening up") so the questions to start with should be less dramatic and more fundamental: how might the system (within and beyond party and state) evolve, shift, get articulated on its own terms so to speak. Or what is the nature and logic of the conjuncture, in the first place, and can we get at it beyond the usual platitudes and cliches about stalinism, markets and modernization, civil society, consumerism, communication "revolutions," etc. I am in no position to pontificate about this. Ive only been studying the PRC for a couple-three years, and in a too unsystematic way, and these questions are not my focus anyway.
PS Whom or what do you have in mind when you say socialist opponents of the CP. I am not doubting so much as just querying. MOre generally, what are you reading on the topic, beyond media I mean....Meisner, Huang?
Best, Dan ------------------------------------------------------ Daniel F. Vukovich Dept. of English; The Unit for Criticism University of Illinois Urbana, IL 61801 ------------------------------------------------------