On Tue, 4 Jan 2000, Russell Grinker wrote:
> There seems to be potential for the Timor precedent to allow Western
> interference here - once again on alleged humanitarian grounds. This
> could be a major threat to Indonesian sovereignty.
In the short run, I think the situation here is very different. The government in Jakarta wants to intervene, and all parties assume that if it intervened in full force it could quell the violence, which seems to actually be inter-communal (as opposed to the violence in East Timor, which was directed from the army through its agents at the people). But what the government seems to be struggling with is how to intervene in hot spots like Ambon without ceding back to the military all the power that it so recently wrested from it in the aftermath of East Timor; and how to intervene without having the army commit the atrocities that have already alienated so many areas, and which would make winning trust impossible in places like Aceh and Irian Jaya. (That might already be impossible, but the government in Jakarta clearly doesn't think so.) This seems to be what has held it back from intervening so far, and what seems to be at stake in the nuance of giving control from the military to the police but not declaring a civil emergency or martial law.
At any rate, there are none of the features in place for a Western style intervention yet -- the state army is not the source of the violence, as least so far as we know; the reported body count is still in the hundreds (the highest estimate I've heard is 1,500 for the year, including the latest 300); there is almost no coverage; there is no clear story; and to the extent there is a clear story, it's about the transition to democracy in Jakarta. Also for East Timor there was a very mobilized international support group. There is zip for the Moluccans.
Of course, all that could change in the long-run, especially if Abdurrahman and company fail to find the golden formula of non-atrocious repression, which is more than likely. But IMHO, the current calls by the Christians in the Moloccas for the UN to intervene are the kind of fruitless pleading that falls on deaf ears every day. I very much doubt that there will be an international intervention there anytime soon. But as for the rest of Indonesia sometime during the coming decade, anything's possible.
Michael
Financial Times 30-Dec-1999
UNREST IN INDONESIA
Military control Ambon security
Indonesia's military yesterday took over security on Ambon island as the government came under fresh criticism for failing to end the latest religious violence, which has killed at least 63 people and injured about 150.
Fighting between Moslems and Christians has been raging in the spice island capital for almost a year. Repeated government efforts have failed to end the killings and Megawati Sukarnoputri, the vice-president, in charge of settling the Ambon crisis, came under fire for her plans to fly out of the country yesterday.
A Jakarta-based military spokesman said that from yesterday the military had effectively taken over security from police, allowing it to search houses and detain suspects.
The military has called for a civil emergency, which is one stage down from martial law and must be declared by the president with the approval of the local governor.
In Jakarta, President Abdurrahman Wahid said he would not declare a civil emergency though he supported handing security responsibilities to the military.
Lieutenant Colonel Iwa Budiman said from Ambon city that while shooting had stopped, the situation remained "very tense". Reuters, Jakarta
Copyright © The Financial Times Limited
__________________________________________________________________________ Michael Pollak................New York City..............mpollak at panix.com