Ecuador

Nathan Newman nathan.newman at yale.edu
Sun Jan 9 17:34:03 PST 2000


So anyone have independent insight or news on the crisis in Ecuador? With Chavez's rise in Venezuala, the strong showing of the left candidate in Uraguay, and now these mass demonstrations, there does seem to be a real revival of populist and labor oppositions in Latin America.

But there has been remarkably little written or said about these events in left publications or these lists, so I hope to hear anyone with info.

Nathan Newman ===

Ecuador declares state of emergency FINANCIAL TIMES By Samantha Newport in Quito and Richard Lapper in London

Ecuador was placed under a state of emergency by President Jamil Mahuad on Thursday in an attempt to contain growing social protests amid signs of a deepening economic crisis.

Confidence in Mr Mahuad's government has fallen sharply with the sucre losing 35 per cent in value since January 1.

"There is a total lack of stability, a terrible international image and no confidence in the country," said Simon Pachano, a political scientist.

Since Mr Mahuad came to power in 1998, political feuding has undermined plans to modernise an economy hit hard by weak commodity prices and losses from bad weather. The economy is expected to have declined by 7 per cent in 1999 - one of the most severe downturns in Latin America. Government efforts to bail out the stricken banking system have contributed to rising inflation. Consumer prices increased 60.7 per cent in 1999 in spite of the economic slowdown.

The country last year became the first to default on its Brady bonds, paper issued in exchange for distressed commercial debt following the debt crisis of the 1980s.

The state of emergency prohibits large gatherings and will allow the government to avert demonstrations scheduled by trades unions that are calling for Mr Mahuad's resignation. The unions plan a general strike on January 15.

The government decree said: "Some sectors are interested in destabilising the government."

Carlos Gilces, head of the Ecuadorean Workers Confederation, said: "The government's policies are unsustainable. The government has to go and so does the board of directors of the Central Bank."

Opinion polls suggest 45 per cent of Ecuadoreans believe Mr Mahuad should resign. He has an approval rating of only 9 per cent.

Business confidence has been hit by confusion surrounding the government's economic plans. The central bank on Wednesday postponed until today the announcement of a "global monetary plan".

There have been delays to agreeing a $250m standby loan from the International Monetary Fund that should release funds from other multilateral organisations and allow Ecuador to recapitalise its banking system and reactivate its economy. The IMF says the agreement could be signed late next month.

Yesterday the sucre lost 17.4 per cent of value in early trading, falling to 29,000 to the US dollar. The monetary base expanded by 152 per cent and $1.6bn fled the country. Foreign reserves are at $1.27bn.



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