[These paleoconservatives sometimes have a good line in anti-imperialism]
NEW YORK PRESS, May 31-June 7
George Szamuely
The Bunker
Defense Against What?
"The best national missile defense requires a bold rhetorical
offense," William Safire exulted when George W. Bush called for the
United States to adopt a vast missile defense system. Most of the rest
of the world looks upon the prospect of our becoming invulnerable to
other countries' missiles with some alarm. If the U.S. can bomb Serbs,
humiliate Russians, destroy Chinese embassies and starve Iraqis today,
what on Earth is it going to do when the antimissile "shield" is in
place!
We can never admit our imperial ambitions publicly. Therefore, all
manner of ludicrous reasons have to be put forward to justify
development of the system. The method has become routine. America, as
always, is the victim. As always, we are threatened by other powers.
Like who? It can't be the Russians. They've given up on communism and
the Warsaw Pact, and drastically reduced the number of nuclear
warheads they had in the Soviet era. It can't be the Chinese. We're in
the process of establishing permanent normal trading relations with
them. Besides, they only have 20 intercontinental missiles. Which
leaves the "rogue states." Why a "rogue state" would lob a missile at
a United States capable of swift, devastating retaliation is a
mystery. Even if a "rogue state" did want to attack, it would make
more sense for its agents to leave a nuclear device in downtown
Washington instead of launching one whose provenance would immediately
be known. Plus, "rogue states" are getting a little scarce. North
Korea has just opened talks with South Korea. In a few years, the
Pyongyang regime may be no more.
To be sure, there is still Iran. "Iran could test an ICBM that could
deliver a several-hundred kilogram payload to many parts of the United
States in the last half of the next decade," according to a recent CIA
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). Note the "coulds." One can
conjure up almost any threat that "could" one day arise. These days,
however, the U.S. is so anxious to get its hands on the oil riches of
the Caspian Sea that it is making nice with the ayatollahs. Not always
successfully. Recently, the Hideous Harridan of Foggy Bottom
apologized abjectly for American involvement in the overthrow of
former Iranian Prime Minister Mohammed Mosadeq. Albright-surely the
most dimwitted member of any administration ever-seemed unaware that
Iran's Muslim clerics loathed the secularist Mosadeq even more
intensely than either the CIA or the Shah. That only leaves our old
friend, Saddam Hussein. "Iraq could test a North Korean-type ICBM that
could deliver a several-hundred kilogram payload to the United States
in the last half of the next decade depending on the level of foreign
assistance," in the trenchant words of the CIA's NIE. It seems
unlikely, to say the least, that 10 years of sanctions have done
nothing to impair Saddam's ability to build a rocket capable of
reaching the U.S.
The CIA is a voice of reason compared to the hysteria of the 1998
Rumsfeld Commission. "Concerted efforts by a number of overtly or
potentially hostile nations to acquire ballistic missiles with
biological or nuclear payloads pose a growing threat to the United
States..." it spluttered. "The threat to the U.S. posed by these
emerging capabilities is broader, more mature and evolving more
rapidly than has been reported in estimates by the Intelligence
Community." Yet none of the "rogue states" is remotely close to having
intercontinental missiles. Only the five major nuclear powers have
them. Given that feebleness, it is hardly surprising that no one in
the world believes that America would splash out $60 billion on a
missile defense system out of fear of a few puny states. ($60 billion,
incidentally, is just the cost of the less-expensive Clinton plan of
100 ground-based interceptors in Alaska and a few early warning
radars. The Bush plan would likely be much more expensive.) No, the
Missile Defense System is part and parcel of the American empire.
Fearing permanent subordination to the U.S., the Russians have already
said that they will respond to any U.S. antimissile system by
equipping their missiles with more warheads. If ever there was a case
of imperial overreach, this is it! Current technology still can't
distinguish a nuclear warhead from a decoy balloon. Interceptors are
unable to handle warheads that break up into hundreds of small bombs.
After innumerable failures, last October a missile intercept test was
successful. The interceptor supposedly distinguished the target from
the decoy. Much Pentagon high-fiving ensued. It turned out, however,
that the test was so artificial as to be almost meaningless. As Joseph
Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
explained: "The target followed a pre-programmed flight path to a
designated position. The interceptor missile also flew to a
pre-programmed position. A Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) receiver
was placed on the target to send its position to ground control, and
the necessary target location information was uploaded to a computer
in the kill vehicle. The decoy released had a significantly different
thermal signature than the target, making it easier for the sensors on
the kill vehicle to distinguish between the objects." In a second test
in January, the interceptor failed to hit its target altogether. The
test again involved the use of a GPS receiver for tracking
information. As the CIA report ruefully points out, "Historically, the
development and deployment of missile defense systems have been
accompanied by the development of countermeasures...by potential
adversaries... The Russians and Chinese have had countermeasure
programs for decades and are probably willing to transfer some related
technology to others."
The swiftest and most dramatic end to the American empire will come
about when some Madeleine Albright-type occupies the Oval Office.
Drunk on the heady brew of "indispensable nation" claptrap, convinced
of our technological prowess, the president will launch a military
caper sublimely confident in our invulnerability.