>
> Date: Sat, 24 Jun 2000 09:44:54 -0700
> From: Brad De Long <delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU>
> Subject: Re: Fwd: Truth is the First Casualty of War
>
> >Is there anything to back up the rumour that FDR was aware of the Japanese
> >plans for Pearl Harbour at least a day ahead of time - that he might have
> >decided to trade some battleships and a couple of thousand fellas for a
> >pretext to go in? Is that why the carriers were not at their moorings that
> >morning? Is that story around, stateside?
> >Yours in idle speculation,
> >Rob.
> The story's around. But it makes no sense. A surprise attack is a
> surprise attack whether it sinks seven battleships or is driven off
> with heavy losses to the attacking air squadrons: the political
> effect is the same.
Yes. The obvious thing to do, if FDR had been aware of this, would be to ambush the Japanese fleet when it attacked Pearl Harbor. Most of the ships wouldn't have been in port; they'd have been out striking at the Japanese fleet while it's planes were attaching Pearl. Or more precisely, fighting their way through US land-based air, burning up their fuel and dropping their bombs prematurely, then bombing secondary targets while dodging US aircraft and AA fire.
End result: a glorious victory to kick off the war. And several hundred US KIA's anyhow; one doesn't fight a major battle without casualties.
>
> It is true that the U.S. military and the White House thought a
> Japanese attack was not unlikely in December 1941. But if I recall
> correctly they were much more worried about large-scale
> sabotage--hence Clark Field in the Philippines, where the B-17s were
> parked wingtip-to-wingtip so that saboteurs could not get at them,
> making a perfect target for air attack...
I read an account of the Japanese attack on the major air/naval base which kicked off the attack on the Phillipines. It was at 7 AM on Dec &, 1941. Local time, of course, which was several hours after the attack on Pearl. The pilots all assumed that it was a virtual suicide attack, because the Americans would be warned and ready.
Instead, they hit a base still asleep.
The US just didn't seem to realize that the Japanese were about to attack. And the Phillipines were certainly a better first-strike target than Hawaii, which was more risky.
Barry