German Land election

[Johannes Schneider]

Chris Burford asked:
> I wanted to ask more about the CDU. The International Herald Tribune
claims
> that the S-H result sharpens the leadership contest within the CDU. I
don't
> quite get that argument because Volker Ruehe admittedly has not won the
> Land outright, as he expected to do a few months ago, but nor did he
expect
> Schauble to vacate the post. He has done neither well nor badly.
But he did well compared to what the CDU feared. It seems everything in life
is relative.
> The IHT sketches the line up, that Ruehe is representing the more
> conservative wing of the CDU, and enjoying the rightist support of Stoiber
> and the CSU of Bavaria. Angela Merkel from the former DDR is seen as
> without the traditional CDU network connections, and symbolising the
> possibility of splitting the CDU on gender, generational and ideological
> lines.
Before the governor of the state of Hesse, Koch, looked like the coming man
of the conservative wing of the CDU, but he is deeply involved in the
funding scandal. Most of the other younger politicians of the are more or
less associated withe the 'left' wing of the CDU. Thus the CDU right is
without any leader. Ruehe is more of a wheeler-dealer type than anyone who
has strong convictions. Furthermore he was a close Kohl colaborator, at
times he served as his general secretary.
What Angela Merkel stands for is not so clear, but its obvious the CDU left
around Geissler and Süessmuth are putting great hopes into her. Since she is
the only hope for the CDU, she is loved by the ordinary CDU members.
At the moment it looks as if she will be the next chairperson. But
traditonally CDU inner party politics are full of intrigue and there is
certainly going to be a revolt against Merkel if she will make any error.
Something not to be underestimated is the outright hatred within the CDU
against anything from the East. Beeing a woman wont make things easier for
her.
> How serious is the argument that a strong conservative CDU is needed
> to undercut the possible emergence of a Haider type figure in German
politics?
Thats the argument of those ones who want to have a 'respectable' racism and
nationalism. If you compare the platform of the CSU in this regard you will
find more radical statements than in the platform of some right wing
parties. But at the end of the day it will make the Neonazi positions look
acceptable. So the whole argument is complete nonsense and hypocritical.
> Or does a shift of say ten percent of the votes from the CDU to the SPD
> over the last four months, mean that the whole pattern of German politics
> is tilted a little more to the left, even if that is not really socialism?
Not at all. Compare the votes casted for SPD in this elections to those ones
the SPD got at the last federal elections. You will see the SPD lost votes
in a situation of the deepest crisis of the CDU.
Johannes