On Wed, 29 Mar 2000, Scott Martens wrote:
Lots of well-informed stuff. It's nice to have someone on tap that actually knows the science involved. I have a question you can probably answer. One of the stock objection of greenhouse skeptics (like Herb Schmertz or his epigone that's still writing advertorials for Exxon now that they've become ExxonMobil) is that there have been large variations in global temperature over the last 3 millennia, and that variation during the "medieval warm period" (circa 1000 years ago) and the "little ice age" (circa 400 years ago) were both more extreme and happened more quickly than the variation we've experienced over the last century. The implication is that there are chaos-like structures leading to global temperature variation that are as yet unaccounted for in our theories, and that might well swamp the effects of human industry -- in which case, if we have to spend billions of dollars either way, we are better off spending them adapting to climate chage than trying to prevent it. Is there any truth to this position? Does it have an obvious flaw?
Michael __________________________________________________________________________ Michael Pollak................New York City..............mpollak at panix.com